U. S. oil import vulnerability: The technical replacement capability. Summary
The report examines the changes that have taken place in world oil markets and the U.S. economy since 1984 and provides revised estimates of the technical oil replacement potential that might be attained in the event of a severe and long lasting cutoff of imported oil. The analysis focuses on technologies that are commercially available today or will be within the next 5 years and that are among the most cost-effective methods for replacing oil use in applicable sectors. It also considers the economic impacts of adopting an aggressive oil replacement strategy in a severe oil emergency. The report presents a variety of policy options that could help accelerate the adoption of oil replacement technologies in preparation for, or in response to, a severe supply disruption, or as part of a long-term national policy to reduce import vulnerability. The report's conclusion that U.S. capability to replace lost oil imports is shrinking should be sobering to those who believe that there are quick and easy technological solutions, or that market forces alone will be sufficient to overcome the substantial economic and social dislocations that could result from a prolonged major oil disruption.
- Research Organization:
- Office of Technology Assessment (U.S. Congress), Washington, DC (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 5123976
- Report Number(s):
- PB-92-181734/XAB; OTA-E-521
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Also available from Supt. of Docs. See also PB92-117621 and PB92-158823
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
PETROLEUM
IMPORTS
SUPPLY DISRUPTION
COMMERCIALIZATION
ECONOMIC IMPACT
EMERGENCY PLANS
ENERGY POLICY
ENERGY SHORTAGES
FORECASTING
FUEL CONSUMPTION
FUEL SUBSTITUTION
FUEL SUPPLIES
GLOBAL ASPECTS
MARKET
NATIONAL SECURITY
PRODUCTION
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TRADE
USA
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
NORTH AMERICA
SECURITY
SHORTAGES
020700* - Petroleum- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
294002 - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting