Global climate change and maize production in Spain: Risk assessment and impacts of weather on yields
- Univ. de Zaragoza (Spain)
The study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on maize production in Spain, combining climate models, a crop productivity model, a decision support system and a yield-response model. The study was carried out for two agricultural regions that include the largest areas of Spain where maize is grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of grain yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). A yield response model was estimated using simulated data from the crop model. Weather variables are included. Typically, temperature and precipitation are the only weather variables included in these models. However, solar radiation is another important climate factor for plant growth and development and were included in the yield response model.
- OSTI ID:
- 470962
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-960420-; ISBN 0-884736-02-5; TRN: IM9722%%85
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 7. global warming international conference and exposition, Vienna (Austria), 1-3 Apr 1996; Other Information: PBD: 1996; Related Information: Is Part Of The 7. global warming international conference and expo: Abstracts; PB: 154 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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