The evolution of carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in industrialized countries: an end-use analysis
There has been much attention drawn to plans for reductions or restraint in future C02 emissions, yet little analysis of the recent history of those emissions by end use or economic activity. Understanding the components of C02 emissions, particularly those related to combustion of fossil fuels, is important for judging the likely success of plans for dealing with future emissions. Knowing how fuel switching, changes in economic activity and its structure, or changes in energy-use efficiency affected emissions in the past, we can better judge both the realism of national proposals to restrain future emissions and the outcome as well. This study presents a first step in that analysis. The organization of this paper is as follows. We present a brief background and summarize previous work analyzing changes in energy use using the factorial method. We then describe our data sources and method. We then present a series of summary results, including a comparison of C02 emissions in 1991 by end use or sector. We show both aggregate change and change broken down by factor, highlighting briefly the main components of change. We then present detailed results, sector by sector. Next we highlight recent trends. Finally, we integrate our results, discussing -the most important factors driving change - evolution in economic structure, changes in energy intensities, and shifts in the fuel mix. We discuss briefly some of the likely causes of these changes - long- term technological changes, effects of rising incomes, the impact of overall changes in energy prices, as well as changes in the relative prices of energy forms.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); USDOE, Washington, DC (United States); Government of Denmark, Copenhagen (Denmark); Swedish National Board for Technical Development, Stockholm (Sweden); Government of Finland, Helsinki (Finland)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC03-76SF00098
- OSTI ID:
- 435040
- Report Number(s):
- LBL-38574; ON: DE97001189
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: Aug 1996
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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