Uncertainties in lung dose from plutonium oxide using the revised ICRP respiratory tract model
- Nuclear Fuel Services, Erwin, TN (United States)
- Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)
Prediction of equivalent dose in the respiratory tract is an important component in the assessment of health risks associated with inhaled radioactive aerosols. The purpose of this study was to quantify uncertainties in lung equivalent dose that result from uncertainties and variabilities in model parameters. The latest respiratory tract model adopted by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in Publication 66 was used. The study was based on parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model for specified exposures to plutonium dioxide aerosols. An extensive and critical literature review was conducted to ascribe probability distributions to over sixty of the model parameters. Using a Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique, a numerical representation of joint probability density function for the input parameters was generated and was propagated through the model to produce probability distributions in equivalent dose to the lungs. The study provides important results concerning model reliability by presenting uncertainty bounds on lung dose predictions. In addition, the sensitivity of the model predictions to model parameters was investigated by computing standardized rank regression coefficients and by performing step-wise rank regression analyses. Analyses were performed for varying activity particle size distributions of PuO{sub 2} aerosols for an adult male population at a light physical exertion level. Results indicate, that equivalent doses to various respiratory tract regions and to the combined lung are distributed approximately lognormally with geometric standard deviations approaching an upper limit of about five. Median dose values, as predicted in this work, generally agreed with {open_quotes}default{close_quotes} dose values derived using ICRP-recommended point estimates for model parameters.
- OSTI ID:
- 394071
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9607135-; ISSN 0017-9078; TRN: 96:028749
- Journal Information:
- Health Physics, Vol. 70, Issue Suppl.6; Conference: 41. Annual Meeting of the Health Physics Society, Seattle, WA (United States), 21-25 Jul 1996; Other Information: PBD: Jun 1996
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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