Verification and transparency in future arms control
Verification`s importance has changed dramatically over time, although it always has been in the forefront of arms control. The goals and measures of verification and the criteria for success have changed with the times as well, reflecting such factors as the centrality of the prospective agreement to East-West relations during the Cold War, the state of relations between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the technologies available for monitoring. Verification`s role may be declining in the post-Cold War period. The prospects for such a development will depend, first and foremost, on the high costs of traditional arms control, especially those associated with requirements for verification. Moreover, the growing interest in informal, or non-negotiated arms control does not allow for verification provisions by the very nature of these arrangements. Multilateral agreements are also becoming more prominent and argue against highly effective verification measures, in part because of fears of promoting proliferation by opening sensitive facilities to inspectors from potential proliferant states. As a result, it is likely that transparency and confidence-building measures will achieve greater prominence, both as supplements to and substitutes for traditional verification. Such measures are not panaceas and do not offer all that we came to expect from verification during the Cold war. But they may be the best possible means to deal with current problems of arms reductions and restraints at acceptable levels of expenditure.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-36
- OSTI ID:
- 379025
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-96-2618; CONF-960767-53; ON: DE96014628
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 37. annual meeting of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management, Naples, FL (United States), 28 Jul - 1 Aug 1996; Other Information: PBD: [1996]
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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