Analysis of proposed CO{sub 2} emission reductions in the context of stabilization of CO{sub 2} concentration
- Exxon Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States). Corporate Research Labs.
- Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
Targets for reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions have been proposed in response to concerns over future global climate change with a focus on a 2010 target date. The authors develop emission scenarios over the 1990 to 2010 time-frame from available emissions data, and which encompass the range of proposed emission reductions. Emission reductions over this time frame could be viewed as steps towards mitigating impacts of climate change as well as steps towards the objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change which is, in part, the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations. Illustrative analyses of the stabilization of CO{sub 2} concentration have defined pathways that lead to constant CO{sub 2} concentrations over time ranges of greater than a century. While the prediction of specific impacts of climate change is highly uncertain, models have been developed to project changes in global-average temperature, sea level, and CO{sub 2} concentration; these quantities are often used as indicators in place of specific impacts of climate change. In this study, the authors summarize projections made with the Integrated Science Assessment Model of these quantities for the range of emission scenarios, and find that the reductions considered are not expected to effect near-term (by 2010) impacts. The authors also find no obvious correspondence between CO{sub 2} emissions reductions by 2010 and the stabilization levels eventually arrived at by previously defined pathways of CO{sub 2} concentration.
- OSTI ID:
- 351185
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-970677-; TRN: IM9925%%347
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 90. annual meeting and exhibition of the Air and Waste Management Association, Toronto (Canada), 8-13 Jun 1997; Other Information: PBD: 1997; Related Information: Is Part Of 1997 proceedings of the Air and Waste Management Association`s 90. annual meeting and exhibition; PB: [7000] p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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