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Title: Coal: The bridge to future world energy sustainability

Abstract

In their latest International Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that total world energy use will increase from 365 quads per year in 1995 to 562 quads by 2015, an increase of over 50 percent. Between now and 2015, energy demand in the OECD countries, Eastern Europe (EE), and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) is forecast to grow about 25 percent (from 269 to 336 quads), whereas in the developing world, over the same period, energy growth is forecast to be over 100 percent (from 112 to 226 quads). But can fossil resources, particularly oil and natural gas, continue to supply this escalating world demand into the future? There is presently wide disagreement among experts concerning the resource base for petroleum and natural gas worldwide. The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the ultimate world resource for oil is about 2.5 trillion barrels and for natural gas about 12,000 TCF. Even if these resource estimates were to be increased by 40 percent (equivalent to increasing the average field recovery rate from 34 to 50 percent), extrapolation of the EIA oil demand beyond 2015 would result in world oil production potential peaking around the year 2020 and then irreversiblymore » declining because of resource limitations. A similar situation applies to natural gas, where world demand results in gas production peaking and declining about 2025. The combination of oil, gas, coal and non-fossil (renewables and nuclear) resources can satisfy demand until 2015. However, to accomplish this, world coal consumption has to increase by almost 50 percent by 2015. The conclusion from this analysis is that oil and natural gas resource limitations as a result of escalating world energy demand will necessitate the increased use of coal and renewables. Since commercial deployment of renewables will not be rapid enough to meet demand, it is a worldwide environmental imperative to develop and deploy technologies that will allow this enormous demand for coal to be used cleanly and efficiently. If clean coal technologies were to be used to replace old direct use applications, then the same quantity of coal could be used t provide all the energy originally provided by direct use and also produce nearly 2 million barrels per day of high quality transportation fuels. If, in addition, IGCC technology were to replace current coal-fired power plants, the same quantity of coal could increase power generation by 30%. In addition to the enormous improvement in local environmental conditions that this deployment of clean coal technologies would allow, the savings in carbon emissions would be over 100 million tons per year, equivalent to about 12% of China`s total carbon emissions. This considerable reduction in total carbon emissions as a result of efficient clean coal use is clearly of considerable value in attempts to minimize potential effects of global climate change.« less

Authors:
;  [1]
  1. Mitretek Systems, McLean, VA (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
324662
Report Number(s):
CONF-970931-
TRN: 99:004327
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: 14. annual international Pittsburgh coal conference and workshop: clean coal technology and coal utilization, Taiyuan (China), 23-27 Sep 1997; Other Information: PBD: 1997; Related Information: Is Part Of Fourteenth annual international Pittsburgh coal conference and workshop: Proceedings; PB: [1500] p.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY; COAL; PETROLEUM; NATURAL GAS; SUPPLY AND DEMAND; FORECASTING; ENERGY CONSUMPTION; NUCLEAR ENERGY; RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES; COAL PREPARATION; COMBINED-CYCLE POWER PLANTS

Citation Formats

Gray, D, and Tomlinson, G. Coal: The bridge to future world energy sustainability. United States: N. p., 1997. Web.
Gray, D, & Tomlinson, G. Coal: The bridge to future world energy sustainability. United States.
Gray, D, and Tomlinson, G. 1997. "Coal: The bridge to future world energy sustainability". United States.
@article{osti_324662,
title = {Coal: The bridge to future world energy sustainability},
author = {Gray, D and Tomlinson, G},
abstractNote = {In their latest International Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that total world energy use will increase from 365 quads per year in 1995 to 562 quads by 2015, an increase of over 50 percent. Between now and 2015, energy demand in the OECD countries, Eastern Europe (EE), and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) is forecast to grow about 25 percent (from 269 to 336 quads), whereas in the developing world, over the same period, energy growth is forecast to be over 100 percent (from 112 to 226 quads). But can fossil resources, particularly oil and natural gas, continue to supply this escalating world demand into the future? There is presently wide disagreement among experts concerning the resource base for petroleum and natural gas worldwide. The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the ultimate world resource for oil is about 2.5 trillion barrels and for natural gas about 12,000 TCF. Even if these resource estimates were to be increased by 40 percent (equivalent to increasing the average field recovery rate from 34 to 50 percent), extrapolation of the EIA oil demand beyond 2015 would result in world oil production potential peaking around the year 2020 and then irreversibly declining because of resource limitations. A similar situation applies to natural gas, where world demand results in gas production peaking and declining about 2025. The combination of oil, gas, coal and non-fossil (renewables and nuclear) resources can satisfy demand until 2015. However, to accomplish this, world coal consumption has to increase by almost 50 percent by 2015. The conclusion from this analysis is that oil and natural gas resource limitations as a result of escalating world energy demand will necessitate the increased use of coal and renewables. Since commercial deployment of renewables will not be rapid enough to meet demand, it is a worldwide environmental imperative to develop and deploy technologies that will allow this enormous demand for coal to be used cleanly and efficiently. If clean coal technologies were to be used to replace old direct use applications, then the same quantity of coal could be used t provide all the energy originally provided by direct use and also produce nearly 2 million barrels per day of high quality transportation fuels. If, in addition, IGCC technology were to replace current coal-fired power plants, the same quantity of coal could increase power generation by 30%. In addition to the enormous improvement in local environmental conditions that this deployment of clean coal technologies would allow, the savings in carbon emissions would be over 100 million tons per year, equivalent to about 12% of China`s total carbon emissions. This considerable reduction in total carbon emissions as a result of efficient clean coal use is clearly of considerable value in attempts to minimize potential effects of global climate change.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/324662}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 1997},
month = {Wed Dec 31 00:00:00 EST 1997}
}

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