Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Zarakas, Claire M.; Kennedy, Daniel; Dagon, Katherine; Lawrence, David M.; Liu, Amy; Bonan, Gordon; Koven, Charles; Lombardozzi, Danica; Swann, Abigail L. S.

doi:10.1029/2024gl108372

Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Journal Article · Sat Nov 02 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl108372· OSTI ID:2497753

^[1]; Kennedy, Daniel ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[1]

Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land-to-atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a perturbed parameter ensemble for 18 land parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 2 under preindustrial conditions. We find that an observationally-informed range of land parameters generate biogeophysical feedbacks that significantly influence the mean climate state, largely by modifying evapotranspiration. Global mean land surface temperature ranges by 2.2°C across our ensemble (σ = 0.5°C) and precipitation changes were significant and spatially variable. Our analysis demonstrates that the impacts of land parameter uncertainty on surface fluxes propagate to the entire Earth system, and provides insights into where and how land process uncertainty influences climate.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; SC0021209; SC0022070

OSTI ID:: 2497753

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 51, Issue 21; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (37)

Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel Charney, J. G. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, Issue 428 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710142802	journal	April 1975
Impact of the representation of stomatal conductance on model projections of heatwave intensity Kala, Jatin; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Pitman, Andy J. Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep23418	journal	March 2016
Biogeophysical versus biogeochemical climate response to historical anthropogenic land cover change: CLIMATE EFFECTS OF HISTORICAL LAND COVER CHANGE Pongratz, J.; Reick, C. H.; Raddatz, T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043010	journal	April 2010
Parametric Controls on Vegetation Responses to Biogeochemical Forcing in the CLM5 Fisher, Rosie A.; Wieder, William R.; Sanderson, Benjamin M. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001609	journal	September 2019
A quantitative assessment of a terrestrial biosphere model's data needs across North American biomes: PEcAn/ED model-data uncertainty analysis Dietze, Michael C.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Davidson, Carl Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 119, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002392	journal	March 2014
Diagnosis of the summertime warm and dry bias over the U.S. Southern Great Plains in the GFDL climate model using a weather forecasting approach: GFDL CLIMATE MODEL SUMMERTIME BIAS Klein, Stephen A.; Jiang, Xianan; Boyle, Jim Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027567	journal	September 2006
Biophysical consequences of photosynthetic temperature acclimation for climate: TEMPERATURE ACCLIMATION AND CLIMATE Smith, Nicholas G.; Lombardozzi, Danica; Tawfik, Ahmed Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000732	journal	February 2017
On “Field Significance” and the False Discovery Rate Wilks, D. S. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 45, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2404.1	journal	September 2006
Land-atmosphere coupling and climate prediction over the U.S. Southern Great Plains: LAND-ATMOSPHERE COUPLING AND CLIMATE Williams, Ian N.; Lu, Yaqiong; Kueppers, Lara M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025223	journal	October 2016
The Partitioning of Evapotranspiration into Transpiration, Soil Evaporation, and Canopy Evaporation in a GCM: Impacts on Land–Atmosphere Interaction Lawrence, David M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Oleson, Keith W. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM596.1	journal	August 2007
GLACE: The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment. Part I: Overview Koster, Randal D.; Sud, Y. C.; Guo, Zhichang Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM510.1	journal	August 2006
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity: Is It Accurate to Use a Slab Ocean Model? Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Gent, Peter R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2596.1	journal	May 2009
Systematic land climate and evapotranspiration biases in CMIP5 simulations: CMIP5 BIASES Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058055	journal	January 2014
Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wilhelm, Micah; Stanelle, Tanja Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50956	journal	October 2013
Drought in the Sahara: A Biogeophysical Feedback Mechanism Charney, J.; Stone, P. H.; Quirk, W. J. Science, Vol. 187, Issue 4175 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.187.4175.434	journal	February 1975
Coupled PPE model output - land parameter impacts on the mean climate state Zarakas, Claire Dryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.0k6djhb73	dataset	January 2024
Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation Swann, A. L. S.; Fung, I. Y.; Chiang, J. C. H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116706108	journal	December 2011
Comparison of Radiative and Physiological Effects of Doubled Atmospheric CO2 on Climate Sellers, P. J.; Bounoua, L.; Collatz, G. J. Science, Vol. 271, Issue 5254 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.271.5254.1402	journal	March 1996
Are We Entering The Golden Age Of Climate Modeling? Betancourt, Mark Eos, Vol. 103 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EO220538	journal	November 2022
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS‐D‐13‐00255.1	journal	August 2015
CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site Zhang, Chengzhu; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027200	journal	March 2018
Influence of Land-Surface Evapotranspiration on the Earth's Climate Shukla, J.; Mintz, Y. Science, Vol. 215, Issue 4539 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.215.4539.1498	journal	March 1982
Sensitivity of surface flux simulations to hydrologic parameters based on an uncertainty quantification framework applied to the Community Land Model: UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION FOR CLM4 Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, L. Ruby Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017521	journal	August 2012
Effects of parameter uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics: PARAMETER-BASED UNCERTAINTY OF A DGVM Zaehle, S.; Sitch, S.; Smith, B. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 19, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002395	journal	September 2005
Perspectives on the Future of Land Surface Models and the Challenges of Representing Complex Terrestrial Systems Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001453	journal	April 2020
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Computationally Intensive Spatially Distributed Dynamical Environmental Systems Models Huo, Xueli; Gupta, Hoshin; Niu, Guo‐Yue Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001573	journal	September 2019
Europe builds ‘digital twin’ of Earth to hone climate forecasts Voosen, Paul Science, Vol. 370, Issue 6512 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.370.6512.16	journal	October 2020
Are general circulation models obsolete? Balaji, V.; Couvreux, Fleur; Deshayes, Julie Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, Issue 47 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202075119	journal	November 2022
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Danabasoglu, G.; Lamarque, J. ‐F.; Bacmeister, J. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916	journal	February 2020
Role of clouds and land-atmosphere coupling in midlatitude continental summer warm biases and climate change amplification in CMIP5 simulations Cheruy, F.; Dufresne, J. L.; Hourdin, F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061145	journal	September 2014
The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty Lawrence, David M.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001583	journal	December 2019
Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near‐Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Ma, H. ‐Y. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027199	journal	March 2018
Constraining Land Surface and Atmospheric Parameters of a Locally Coupled Model Using Observational Data Liu, Yuqiong; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM407.1	journal	April 2005
The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model Ricciuto, Daniel; Sargsyan, Khachik; Thornton, Peter Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000962	journal	February 2018
Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble Boulton, Chris A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Good, Peter Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13733	journal	June 2017
Critical impact of vegetation physiology on the continental hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO ₂ Lemordant, Léo; Gentine, Pierre; Swann, Abigail S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1720712115	journal	April 2018
CAUSES: On the Role of Surface Energy Budget Errors to the Warm Surface Air Temperature Error Over the Central United States Ma, H. ‐Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027194	journal	March 2018

Similar Records

Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

Technical Report · Tue Dec 12 00:00:00 EST 2017 · OSTI ID:1412689

Melillo, Jerry

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

Journal Article · Fri Sep 02 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Geoscientific Model Development (Online) · OSTI ID:1377473

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; +9 more

Related Subjects

land-atmosphere interactions
perturbed parameter ensemble
land models
Earth system models
parameter uncertainty
evapotranspiration

Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Citation Formats

References (37)

Similar Records

Related Subjects