Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project: Comparing biogeography and geochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO{sub 2} doubling
- Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
- Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); and others
This paper presents the results of a project designed to integrate biogeographical and biogeochemical models of terrestrial ecosystem response to climatic change caused by increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Three biogeographical and three biogeochemical models were first compared independently of one another. Simulations were performed for the conterminous United States under conditions of current atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and climate, and doubled CO{sub 2} and various climates. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models appropriately simulated the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and forest area. The results of biogeochemistry models were similar for net primary production and total carbon storage under conditions of current climate. Variable model estimates resulted for input conditions of doubled CO{sub 2} due to differing model sensitivities to temperature and CO{sub 2}. When the biogeochemistry models were run in conjunction with the biogeographical models, variable results were also produced. The variability of model results indicates that ecosystem properties, particularly distribution of major vegetation types, primary productivity, and carbon storage, may be extremely sensitive to the magnitude of climatic change predicted by some models. However, the variation between models in magnitude and direction of change is considerable. Four broad areas of research are identified as deserving immediate attention: modularization of models, reduction of uncertainties regarding key processes, validation of models, and development of models of transient ecological responses. 89 refs., 6 figs., 10 tabs.
- OSTI ID:
- 244062
- Journal Information:
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 9, Issue 4; Other Information: PBD: Dec 1995
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Predicting equilibrium vegetation responses to global climate change using coupled biogeography and ecosystem models
VEMAP - Phase I Database: An Integrated INPUT Dataset for ECOSYSTEM and Vegetation Modeling for the Conterminous United States