Ensemble Estimation of Historical Evapotranspiration for the Conterminous U.S.

Reitz, M.; Sanford, W. E.; Saxe, S.

doi:10.1029/2022wr034012

Ensemble Estimation of Historical Evapotranspiration for the Conterminous U.S.

Journal Article · 01 June 2023 · Water Resources Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022wr034012· OSTI ID:2422771

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U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Remote Sensing Branch Reston VA USA
U.S. Geological Survey Earth Systems Modeling Branch Reston VA USA
U.S. Geological Survey Analysis and Prediction Branch Lakewood CO USA

Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall‐to‐wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS‐wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national‐scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time.

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). AmeriFlux

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 2422771

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 59; ISSN 0043-1397

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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