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Title: Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory

Abstract

Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates thatmore » the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;  [1]
  1. China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), National Engineering Research Center of Coal Mine Water Hazard Controlling (China)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22780909
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Hydrogeology Journal
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 25; Journal Issue: 7; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2017 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); Journal ID: ISSN 1431-2174
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; CHINA; COAL MINES; COAL SEAMS; ENGINEERING; GROUND WATER; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MEASURE THEORY; MINING; PARTITION FUNCTIONS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SAFETY; WATER INFLUX

Citation Formats

Wu, Qiang, Zhao, Dekang, Wang, Yang, Shen, Jianjun, Mu, Wenping, and Liu, Honglei. Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1007/S10040-017-1614-0.
Wu, Qiang, Zhao, Dekang, Wang, Yang, Shen, Jianjun, Mu, Wenping, & Liu, Honglei. Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory. United States. doi:10.1007/S10040-017-1614-0.
Wu, Qiang, Zhao, Dekang, Wang, Yang, Shen, Jianjun, Mu, Wenping, and Liu, Honglei. Wed . "Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory". United States. doi:10.1007/S10040-017-1614-0.
@article{osti_22780909,
title = {Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory},
author = {Wu, Qiang and Zhao, Dekang and Wang, Yang and Shen, Jianjun and Mu, Wenping and Liu, Honglei},
abstractNote = {Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates that the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications.},
doi = {10.1007/S10040-017-1614-0},
journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
issn = {1431-2174},
number = 7,
volume = 25,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {11}
}