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Title: A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference

Abstract

We propose a safeguard procedure for statistical inference that provides universal protection against mismodeling of the background. The method quantifies and incorporates the signal-like residuals of the background model into the likelihood function, using information available in a calibration dataset. This prevents possible false discovery claims that may arise through unknown mismodeling, and corrects the bias in limit setting created by overestimated or underestimated background. We demonstrate how the method removes the bias created by an incomplete background model using three realistic case studies.

Authors:
; ; ;  [1];  [2]
  1. Department of Particle Physics and Astrophysics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl St. 234, Rehovot (Israel)
  2. Teilchen- und Astroteilchenphysik, Max-Planck-Institut für Kernphysik, Saupfercheckweg 1, 69117 Heidelberg (Germany)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22676228
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics; Journal Volume: 2017; Journal Issue: 05; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS; CALIBRATION; DATASETS; FIELD THEORIES; SIMULATION

Citation Formats

Priel, Nadav, Landsman, Hagar, Manfredini, Alessandro, Budnik, Ranny, and Rauch, Ludwig, E-mail: nadav.priel@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: rauch@mpi-hd.mpg.de, E-mail: hagar.landsman@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: alessandro.manfredini@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: ran.budnik@weizmann.ac.il. A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2017/05/013.
Priel, Nadav, Landsman, Hagar, Manfredini, Alessandro, Budnik, Ranny, & Rauch, Ludwig, E-mail: nadav.priel@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: rauch@mpi-hd.mpg.de, E-mail: hagar.landsman@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: alessandro.manfredini@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: ran.budnik@weizmann.ac.il. A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference. United States. doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2017/05/013.
Priel, Nadav, Landsman, Hagar, Manfredini, Alessandro, Budnik, Ranny, and Rauch, Ludwig, E-mail: nadav.priel@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: rauch@mpi-hd.mpg.de, E-mail: hagar.landsman@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: alessandro.manfredini@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: ran.budnik@weizmann.ac.il. Mon . "A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference". United States. doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2017/05/013.
@article{osti_22676228,
title = {A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference},
author = {Priel, Nadav and Landsman, Hagar and Manfredini, Alessandro and Budnik, Ranny and Rauch, Ludwig, E-mail: nadav.priel@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: rauch@mpi-hd.mpg.de, E-mail: hagar.landsman@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: alessandro.manfredini@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: ran.budnik@weizmann.ac.il},
abstractNote = {We propose a safeguard procedure for statistical inference that provides universal protection against mismodeling of the background. The method quantifies and incorporates the signal-like residuals of the background model into the likelihood function, using information available in a calibration dataset. This prevents possible false discovery claims that may arise through unknown mismodeling, and corrects the bias in limit setting created by overestimated or underestimated background. We demonstrate how the method removes the bias created by an incomplete background model using three realistic case studies.},
doi = {10.1088/1475-7516/2017/05/013},
journal = {Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics},
number = 05,
volume = 2017,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Mon May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}