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Title: Brain Metastasis Velocity: A Novel Prognostic Metric Predictive of Overall Survival and Freedom From Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy After Distant Brain Failure Following Upfront Radiosurgery Alone

Abstract

Purpose: Prior statistical models attempted to identify risk factors for time to distant brain failure (DBF) or time to salvage whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) to predict the benefit of early WBRT versus stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone. We introduce a novel clinical metric, brain metastasis velocity (BMV), for predicting clinical outcomes after initial DBF following upfront SRS alone. Methods and Materials: BMV was defined as the cumulative number of new brain metastases that developed over time since first SRS in years. Patients were classified by BMV into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, consisting of <4, 4 to 13, and >13 new metastases per year, respectively. Histology, number of metastases at the time of first SRS, and systemic disease status were assessed for effect on BMV. Results: Of 737 patients treated at our institution with upfront SRS without WBRT, 286 had ≥1 DBF event. A lower BMV predicted for improved overall survival (OS) following initial DBF (log-rank P<.0001). Median OS for the low, intermediate, and high BMV groups was 12.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4-16.9 months), 8.2 months (95% CI, 5.0-9.7 months), and 4.3 months (95% CI, 2.6-6.7 months), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that BMV remained the dominant predictor of OS, with a hazard ratio of 2.75 formore » the high BMV group (95% CI, 1.94-3.89; P<.0001) and a hazard ratio of 1.65 for the intermediate BMV group (95% CI, 1.18-2.30; P<.004). A lower BMV was associated with decreased rates of salvage WBRT (P=.02) and neurologic death (P=.008). Factors predictive for a higher BMV included ≥2 initial brain metastases (P=.004) and melanoma histology (P=.008). Conclusions: BMV is a novel metric associated with OS, neurologic death, and need for salvage WBRT after initial DBF following upfront SRS alone.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ; ; ; ; ;  [1];  [2];  [3]; ;  [4];  [5];  [1]
  1. Department of Radiation Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina (United States)
  2. Department of Medicine - Hematology & Oncology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina (United States)
  3. Department of Cancer Biology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina (United States)
  4. Department of Neurosurgery, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina (United States)
  5. Center for Bioinformatics & Systems Biology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22649916
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics; Journal Volume: 98; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2017 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE; BRAIN; METRICS; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; NEOPLASMS; RADIOTHERAPY; STATISTICAL MODELS; SURGERY; SURVIVAL TIME

Citation Formats

Farris, Michael, E-mail: mfarris@wakehealth.edu, McTyre, Emory R., Cramer, Christina K., Hughes, Ryan, Randolph, David M., Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N., Bourland, J. Daniel, Ruiz, Jimmy, Watabe, Kounosuke, Laxton, Adrian W., Tatter, Stephen B., Zhou, Xiaobo, and Chan, Michael D. Brain Metastasis Velocity: A Novel Prognostic Metric Predictive of Overall Survival and Freedom From Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy After Distant Brain Failure Following Upfront Radiosurgery Alone. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2017.01.201.
Farris, Michael, E-mail: mfarris@wakehealth.edu, McTyre, Emory R., Cramer, Christina K., Hughes, Ryan, Randolph, David M., Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N., Bourland, J. Daniel, Ruiz, Jimmy, Watabe, Kounosuke, Laxton, Adrian W., Tatter, Stephen B., Zhou, Xiaobo, & Chan, Michael D. Brain Metastasis Velocity: A Novel Prognostic Metric Predictive of Overall Survival and Freedom From Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy After Distant Brain Failure Following Upfront Radiosurgery Alone. United States. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2017.01.201.
Farris, Michael, E-mail: mfarris@wakehealth.edu, McTyre, Emory R., Cramer, Christina K., Hughes, Ryan, Randolph, David M., Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N., Bourland, J. Daniel, Ruiz, Jimmy, Watabe, Kounosuke, Laxton, Adrian W., Tatter, Stephen B., Zhou, Xiaobo, and Chan, Michael D. 2017. "Brain Metastasis Velocity: A Novel Prognostic Metric Predictive of Overall Survival and Freedom From Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy After Distant Brain Failure Following Upfront Radiosurgery Alone". United States. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2017.01.201.
@article{osti_22649916,
title = {Brain Metastasis Velocity: A Novel Prognostic Metric Predictive of Overall Survival and Freedom From Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy After Distant Brain Failure Following Upfront Radiosurgery Alone},
author = {Farris, Michael, E-mail: mfarris@wakehealth.edu and McTyre, Emory R. and Cramer, Christina K. and Hughes, Ryan and Randolph, David M. and Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N. and Bourland, J. Daniel and Ruiz, Jimmy and Watabe, Kounosuke and Laxton, Adrian W. and Tatter, Stephen B. and Zhou, Xiaobo and Chan, Michael D.},
abstractNote = {Purpose: Prior statistical models attempted to identify risk factors for time to distant brain failure (DBF) or time to salvage whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) to predict the benefit of early WBRT versus stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone. We introduce a novel clinical metric, brain metastasis velocity (BMV), for predicting clinical outcomes after initial DBF following upfront SRS alone. Methods and Materials: BMV was defined as the cumulative number of new brain metastases that developed over time since first SRS in years. Patients were classified by BMV into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, consisting of <4, 4 to 13, and >13 new metastases per year, respectively. Histology, number of metastases at the time of first SRS, and systemic disease status were assessed for effect on BMV. Results: Of 737 patients treated at our institution with upfront SRS without WBRT, 286 had ≥1 DBF event. A lower BMV predicted for improved overall survival (OS) following initial DBF (log-rank P<.0001). Median OS for the low, intermediate, and high BMV groups was 12.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4-16.9 months), 8.2 months (95% CI, 5.0-9.7 months), and 4.3 months (95% CI, 2.6-6.7 months), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that BMV remained the dominant predictor of OS, with a hazard ratio of 2.75 for the high BMV group (95% CI, 1.94-3.89; P<.0001) and a hazard ratio of 1.65 for the intermediate BMV group (95% CI, 1.18-2.30; P<.004). A lower BMV was associated with decreased rates of salvage WBRT (P=.02) and neurologic death (P=.008). Factors predictive for a higher BMV included ≥2 initial brain metastases (P=.004) and melanoma histology (P=.008). Conclusions: BMV is a novel metric associated with OS, neurologic death, and need for salvage WBRT after initial DBF following upfront SRS alone.},
doi = {10.1016/J.IJROBP.2017.01.201},
journal = {International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics},
number = 1,
volume = 98,
place = {United States},
year = 2017,
month = 5
}
  • Purpose/Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of definitive thoracic chemoradiation therapy following surgery or stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) and whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) on the outcomes of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with synchronous solitary brain metastasis (SSBM). Methods and Materials: A total of 63 NSCLC patients with SSBM were retrospectively evaluated. Patients were staged using positron emission tomography-computed tomography in addition to conventional staging tools. Thoracic radiation therapy (TRT) with a total dose of 66 Gy in 2 Gy fractions was delivered along with 2 cycles of cisplatin-based chemotherapy following either surgery plus 30 Gy ofmore » WBRT (n=33) or SRS plus 30 Gy of WBRT (n=30) for BM. Results: Overall, the treatment was well tolerated. All patients received planned TRT, and 57 patients (90.5%) were also able to receive 2 cycles of chemotherapy. At a median follow-up of 25.3 months (7.1-52.1 months), the median months of overall, locoregional progression-free, neurological progression-free, and progression-free survival were 28.6, 17.7, 26.4, and 14.6, respectively. Both univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that patients with a T1-T2 thoracic disease burden (P=.001), a nodal stage of N0-N1 (P=.003), and no weight loss (P=.008) exhibited superior survival. Conclusions: In the present series, surgical and radiosurgical treatments directed toward SSBM in NSCLC patients were equally effective. The similarities between the present survival outcomes and those reported in other studies for locally advanced NSCLC patients indicate the potentially curative role of definitive chemoradiation therapy for highly selected patients with SSBM.« less
  • Purpose: To investigate the utility of the interval to biochemical failure (IBF) after salvage radiation therapy (SRT) after radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer as a surrogate endpoint for distant metastasis (DM), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and overall mortality (OM). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of 575 patients treated with SRT after RP from a single institution. Of those, 250 patients experienced biochemical failure (BF), with the IBF defined as the time from commencement of SRT to BF. The IBF was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models for its association with DM, PCSM, and OM. Results: Themore » median follow-up time was 85 (interquartile range [IQR] 49.8-121.1) months, with a median IBF of 16.8 (IQR, 8.5-37.1) months. With a cutoff time of 18 months, as previously used, 129 (52%) of patients had IBF ≤18 months. There were no differences among any clinical or pathologic features between those with IBF ≤ and those with IBF >18 months. On log–rank analysis, IBF ≤18 months was prognostic for increased DM (P<.0001, HR 4.9, 95% CI 3.2-7.4), PCSM (P<.0001, HR 4.1, 95% CI 2.4-7.1), and OM (P<.0001, HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7-4.1). Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for other clinical variables demonstrated that IBF was independently prognostic for DM (P<.001, HR 4.9), PCSM (P<.0001, HR 4.0), and OM (P<.0001, HR 2.7). IBF showed minimal change in performance regardless of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) use. Conclusion: After SRT, a short IBF can be used for early identification of patients who are most likely to experience progression to DM, PCSM, and OM. IBF ≤18 months may be useful in clinical practice or as an endpoint for clinical trials.« less
  • Purpose: To evaluate prognostic factors for survival after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for new, progressive, or recurrent brain metastases (BM) after prior whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). Methods and Materials: Patients treated between 1991 and 2007 with Gamma Knife SRS for BM after prior WBRT were retrospectively reviewed. Potential prognostic factors were analyzed overall and by primary site using univariate and stepwise multivariate analyses and recursive partitioning analysis, including age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), primary tumor control, extracranial metastases, number of BM treated, total SRS target volume, and interval from WBRT to SRS. Results: A total of 310 patients were analyzed, includingmore » 90 breast, 113 non-small-cell lung, 31 small-cell lung, 42 melanoma, and 34 miscellaneous patients. The median age was 56, KPS 80, number of BM treated 3, and interval from WBRT to SRS 8.1 months; 76% had controlled primary tumor and 60% had extracranial metastases. The median survival was 8.4 months overall and 12.0 vs. 7.9 months for single vs. multiple BM treated (p = 0.001). There was no relationship between number of BM and survival after excluding single-BM patients. On multivariate analysis, favorable prognostic factors included age <50, smaller total target volume, and longer interval from WBRT to SRS in breast cancer patients; smaller number of BM, KPS >60, and controlled primary in non-small-cell lung cancer patients; and smaller total target volume in melanoma patients. Conclusions: Among patients treated with salvage SRS for BM after prior WBRT, prognostic factors appeared to vary by primary site. Although survival time was significantly longer for patients with a single BM, the median survival time of 7.9 months for patients with multiple BM seems sufficiently long for salvage SRS to appear to be worthwhile, and no evidence was found to support the use of a cutoff for number of BM appropriate for salvage SRS.« less
  • Purpose: Optimal patient selection for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) as the initial treatment for brain metastases is complicated and controversial. This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts survival without salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after upfront SRS. Methods and Materials: Multi-institutional data were analyzed from 895 patients with 2095 lesions treated with SRS without prior or planned WBRT. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent pre-SRS predictors of WBRT-free survival, which were integrated to build a nomogram that was subjected to bootstrap validation. Results: Median WBRT-free survival was 8 months (range, 0.1-139 months). Significant independent predictors formore » inferior WBRT-free survival were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.1 for each 10-year increase), HER2(−) breast cancer (HR 1.6 relative to other histologic features), colorectal cancer (HR 1.4 relative to other histologic features), increasing number of brain metastases (HR 1.09, 1.32, 1.37, and 1.87 for 2, 3, 4, and 5+ lesions, respectively), presence of neurologic symptoms (HR 1.26), progressive systemic disease (HR 1.35), and increasing extracranial disease burden (HR 1.31 for oligometastatic and HR 1.56 for widespread). Additionally, HER2(+) breast cancer (HR 0.81) and melanoma (HR 1.11) trended toward significance. The independently weighted hazard ratios were used to create a nomogram to display estimated probabilities of 6-month and 12-month WBRT-free survival with a corrected Harrell's C concordance statistic of 0.62. Conclusions: Our nomogram can be used at initial evaluation to help select patients best suited for upfront SRS for brain metastases while reducing expense and morbidity in patients who derive minimal or no benefit.« less
  • Background: A phase 3 Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) study subset analysis demonstrated improved overall survival (OS) with the addition of stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) to whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with 1 to 3 brain metastases. Because temozolomide (TMZ) and erlotinib (ETN) cross the blood-brain barrier and have documented activity in NSCLC, a phase 3 study was designed to test whether these drugs would improve the OS associated with WBRT + SRS. Methods and Materials: NSCLC patients with 1 to 3 brain metastases were randomized to receive WBRT (2.5 Gy × 15 tomore » 37.5 Gy) and SRS alone, versus WBRT + SRS + TMZ (75 mg/m{sup 2}/day × 21 days) or ETN (150 mg/day). ETN (150 mg/day) or TMZ (150-200 mg/m{sup 2}/day × 5 days/month) could be continued for as long as 6 months after WBRT + SRS. The primary endpoint was OS. Results: After 126 patients were enrolled, the study closed because of accrual limitations. The median survival times (MST) for WBRT + SRS, WBRT + SRS + TMZ, and WBRT + SRS + ETN were qualitatively different (13.4, 6.3, and 6.1 months, respectively), although the differences were not statistically significant. Time to central nervous system progression and performance status at 6 months were better in the WBRT + SRS arm. Grade 3 to 5 toxicity was 11%, 41%, and 49% in arms 1, 2, and 3, respectively (P<.001). Conclusion: The addition of TMZ or ETN to WBRT + SRS in NSCLC patients with 1 to 3 brain metastases did not improve survival and possibly had a deleterious effect. Because the analysis is underpowered, these data suggest but do not prove that increased toxicity was the cause of inferior survival in the drug arms.« less