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Title: Random Forests to Predict Rectal Toxicity Following Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy

Abstract

Purpose: To propose a random forest normal tissue complication probability (RF-NTCP) model to predict late rectal toxicity following prostate cancer radiation therapy, and to compare its performance to that of classic NTCP models. Methods and Materials: Clinical data and dose-volume histograms (DVH) were collected from 261 patients who received 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy for prostate cancer with at least 5 years of follow-up. The series was split 1000 times into training and validation cohorts. A RF was trained to predict the risk of 5-year overall rectal toxicity and bleeding. Parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model were identified and a logistic regression model was fit. The performance of all the models was assessed by computing the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The 5-year grade ≥2 overall rectal toxicity and grade ≥1 and grade ≥2 rectal bleeding rates were 16%, 25%, and 10%, respectively. Predictive capabilities were obtained using the RF-NTCP model for all 3 toxicity endpoints, including both the training and validation cohorts. The age and use of anticoagulants were found to be predictors of rectal bleeding. The AUC for RF-NTCP ranged from 0.66 to 0.76, depending on the toxicity endpoint. The AUC values for the LKB-NTCP were statisticallymore » significantly inferior, ranging from 0.62 to 0.69. Conclusions: The RF-NTCP model may be a useful new tool in predicting late rectal toxicity, including variables other than DVH, and thus appears as a strong competitor to classic NTCP models.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [4];  [4];  [2];  [5];  [6];  [5];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];
  1. LTSI, Université de Rennes 1, Rennes (France)
  2. (France)
  3. (Colombia)
  4. (China)
  5. Département de Radiothérapie, Centre Eugène Marquis, Rennes (France)
  6. Département de Radiothérapie, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France)
  7. Département de Radiothérapie, Centre Alexis Vautrin, Nancy (France)
  8. Département de Radiothérapie, CRLCC Henri Becquerel, Rouen (France)
  9. Département de Radiothérapie, Hôpital Henri Mondor, Créteil (France)
  10. Escuela de Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Medellín (Colombia)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22420389
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics; Journal Volume: 89; Journal Issue: 5; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2014 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE; ANTICOAGULANTS; NEOPLASMS; PATIENTS; PROSTATE; RADIATION DOSES; RADIOTHERAPY; RECTUM; TOXICITY

Citation Formats

Ospina, Juan D., INSERM, U1099, Rennes, Escuela de Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Medellín, Zhu, Jian, Laboratory of Image Science and Technology, Southeast University, Nanjing, Department of Radiation Physics, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Jinan, Centre de Recherche en Information Biomédical Sino-Français, Rennes, Chira, Ciprian, Bossi, Alberto, Delobel, Jean B., Beckendorf, Véronique, Dubray, Bernard, Lagrange, Jean-Léon, Correa, Juan C., and and others. Random Forests to Predict Rectal Toxicity Following Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2014.04.027.
Ospina, Juan D., INSERM, U1099, Rennes, Escuela de Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Medellín, Zhu, Jian, Laboratory of Image Science and Technology, Southeast University, Nanjing, Department of Radiation Physics, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Jinan, Centre de Recherche en Information Biomédical Sino-Français, Rennes, Chira, Ciprian, Bossi, Alberto, Delobel, Jean B., Beckendorf, Véronique, Dubray, Bernard, Lagrange, Jean-Léon, Correa, Juan C., & and others. Random Forests to Predict Rectal Toxicity Following Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy. United States. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2014.04.027.
Ospina, Juan D., INSERM, U1099, Rennes, Escuela de Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Medellín, Zhu, Jian, Laboratory of Image Science and Technology, Southeast University, Nanjing, Department of Radiation Physics, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Jinan, Centre de Recherche en Information Biomédical Sino-Français, Rennes, Chira, Ciprian, Bossi, Alberto, Delobel, Jean B., Beckendorf, Véronique, Dubray, Bernard, Lagrange, Jean-Léon, Correa, Juan C., and and others. Fri . "Random Forests to Predict Rectal Toxicity Following Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy". United States. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2014.04.027.
@article{osti_22420389,
title = {Random Forests to Predict Rectal Toxicity Following Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy},
author = {Ospina, Juan D. and INSERM, U1099, Rennes and Escuela de Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín, Medellín and Zhu, Jian and Laboratory of Image Science and Technology, Southeast University, Nanjing and Department of Radiation Physics, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Jinan and Centre de Recherche en Information Biomédical Sino-Français, Rennes and Chira, Ciprian and Bossi, Alberto and Delobel, Jean B. and Beckendorf, Véronique and Dubray, Bernard and Lagrange, Jean-Léon and Correa, Juan C. and and others},
abstractNote = {Purpose: To propose a random forest normal tissue complication probability (RF-NTCP) model to predict late rectal toxicity following prostate cancer radiation therapy, and to compare its performance to that of classic NTCP models. Methods and Materials: Clinical data and dose-volume histograms (DVH) were collected from 261 patients who received 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy for prostate cancer with at least 5 years of follow-up. The series was split 1000 times into training and validation cohorts. A RF was trained to predict the risk of 5-year overall rectal toxicity and bleeding. Parameters of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model were identified and a logistic regression model was fit. The performance of all the models was assessed by computing the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: The 5-year grade ≥2 overall rectal toxicity and grade ≥1 and grade ≥2 rectal bleeding rates were 16%, 25%, and 10%, respectively. Predictive capabilities were obtained using the RF-NTCP model for all 3 toxicity endpoints, including both the training and validation cohorts. The age and use of anticoagulants were found to be predictors of rectal bleeding. The AUC for RF-NTCP ranged from 0.66 to 0.76, depending on the toxicity endpoint. The AUC values for the LKB-NTCP were statistically significantly inferior, ranging from 0.62 to 0.69. Conclusions: The RF-NTCP model may be a useful new tool in predicting late rectal toxicity, including variables other than DVH, and thus appears as a strong competitor to classic NTCP models.},
doi = {10.1016/J.IJROBP.2014.04.027},
journal = {International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics},
number = 5,
volume = 89,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014},
month = {Fri Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 2014}
}