# APR1400 LBLOCA uncertainty quantification by Monte Carlo method and comparison with Wilks' formula

## Abstract

An analysis of the uncertainty quantification for the PWR LBLOCA by the Monte Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LBLOCA accident were determined by the PIRT results from the BEMUSE project. The Monte-Carlo method shows that the 95. percentile PCT value can be obtained reliably with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula. The extra margin by the Wilks' formula over the true 95. percentile PCT by the Monte-Carlo method was rather large. Even using the 3 rd order formula, the calculated value using the Wilks' formula is nearly 100 K over the true value. It is shown that, with the ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for the nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame. (authors)

- Authors:

- Korea Atomic Energy Research Inst., 150 Dukjin-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

- Publication Date:

- Research Org.:
- American Nuclear Society, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States)

- OSTI Identifier:
- 22107796

- Resource Type:
- Conference

- Resource Relation:
- Conference: ICAPP '12: 2012 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants, Chicago, IL (United States), 24-28 Jun 2012; Other Information: Country of input: France; 15 refs.; Related Information: In: Proceedings of the 2012 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants - ICAPP '12| 2799 p.

- Country of Publication:
- United States

- Language:
- English

- Subject:
- 21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS; 97 MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND COMPUTING; COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS; COMPUTER CALCULATIONS; DATA COVARIANCES; MONTE CARLO METHOD; NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS; PWR TYPE REACTORS; REACTOR CORES; REACTOR SAFETY; SAFETY ANALYSIS

### Citation Formats

```
Hwang, M., Bae, S., and Chung, B. D.
```*APR1400 LBLOCA uncertainty quantification by Monte Carlo method and comparison with Wilks' formula*. United States: N. p., 2012.
Web.

```
Hwang, M., Bae, S., & Chung, B. D.
```*APR1400 LBLOCA uncertainty quantification by Monte Carlo method and comparison with Wilks' formula*. United States.

```
Hwang, M., Bae, S., and Chung, B. D. Sun .
"APR1400 LBLOCA uncertainty quantification by Monte Carlo method and comparison with Wilks' formula". United States.
```

```
@article{osti_22107796,
```

title = {APR1400 LBLOCA uncertainty quantification by Monte Carlo method and comparison with Wilks' formula},

author = {Hwang, M. and Bae, S. and Chung, B. D.},

abstractNote = {An analysis of the uncertainty quantification for the PWR LBLOCA by the Monte Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LBLOCA accident were determined by the PIRT results from the BEMUSE project. The Monte-Carlo method shows that the 95. percentile PCT value can be obtained reliably with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula. The extra margin by the Wilks' formula over the true 95. percentile PCT by the Monte-Carlo method was rather large. Even using the 3 rd order formula, the calculated value using the Wilks' formula is nearly 100 K over the true value. It is shown that, with the ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for the nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame. (authors)},

doi = {},

journal = {},

number = ,

volume = ,

place = {United States},

year = {2012},

month = {7}

}