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Title: Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

Abstract

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to themore » implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22058821
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Environmental Impact Assessment Review; Journal Volume: 32; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2011 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CHARGES; DEFORESTATION; ENVIRONMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; FRESH WATER; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS; HAZARDS; LAND USE; MOZAMBIQUE; URBAN AREAS; WATER RESOURCES; WETLANDS

Citation Formats

Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios. United States: N. p., 2012. Web. doi:10.1016/J.EIAR.2011.01.015.
Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios. United States. doi:10.1016/J.EIAR.2011.01.015.
Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it. 2012. "Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios". United States. doi:10.1016/J.EIAR.2011.01.015.
@article{osti_22058821,
title = {Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios},
author = {Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it},
abstractNote = {This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.},
doi = {10.1016/J.EIAR.2011.01.015},
journal = {Environmental Impact Assessment Review},
number = 1,
volume = 32,
place = {United States},
year = 2012,
month = 1
}
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