Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems
Abstract
Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.
- Authors:
-
- Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
- New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 219413
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-96-172; CONF-960647-7
ON: DE96007199
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-36
- Resource Type:
- Conference
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 3. international conference on probabilistic safety assessment and management, Crete (Greece), 24-28 Jun 1996; Other Information: PBD: [1996]
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 22 NUCLEAR REACTOR TECHNOLOGY; 36 MATERIALS SCIENCE; 99 MATHEMATICS, COMPUTERS, INFORMATION SCIENCE, MANAGEMENT, LAW, MISCELLANEOUS; REACTOR COMPONENTS; AGING; RISK ASSESSMENT; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; CRACKS; REACTORS; REACTOR SAFETY; COST; MANAGEMENT
Citation Formats
Garcia, M.D., Varma, R., and Heger, A.S. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems. United States: N. p., 1996.
Web.
Garcia, M.D., Varma, R., & Heger, A.S. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems. United States.
Garcia, M.D., Varma, R., and Heger, A.S. Fri .
"Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems". United States.
doi:. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/219413.
@article{osti_219413,
title = {Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems},
author = {Garcia, M.D. and Varma, R. and Heger, A.S.},
abstractNote = {Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 1996},
month = {Fri Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 1996}
}