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Title: Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides

Abstract

The naturally occurring radionuclides radium (Ra-226) and polonium (Po-210) have the potential to be used for criminal acts. Analysis of international incident data contained in the Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft and Orphan Radiation Sources (CSTO), operated at the University of Salzburg, shows that several acts of murder and terrorism with natural radionuclides have already been carried out in Europe and Russia. Five different modes of attack (T) are possible: (1) Covert irradiation of an individual in order to deliver a high individual dose; (2) Covert irradiation of a group of persons delivering a large collective dose; (3) Contamination of food or drink; (4) Generation of radioactive aerosols or solutions; (5) Combination of Ra-226 with conventional explosives (Dirty Bomb).This paper assesses the risk (R) of such criminal acts in terms of: (a) Probability of terrorist motivation deploying a certain attack mode T; (b) Probability of success by the terrorists for the selected attack mode T; (c) Primary damage consequence (C) to the attacked target (activity, dose); (d) Secondary damage consequence (C') to the attacked target (psychological and socio-economic effects); (e) Probability that the consequences (C, C') cannot be brought under control, resulting in a failure to manage successfully the emergencymore » situation due to logistical and/or technical deficits in implementing adequate countermeasures. Extensive computer modelling is used to determine the potential impact of such a criminal attack on directly affected victims and on the environment.« less

Authors:
;  [1];  [2]
  1. Div. of Physics and Biophysics, University of Salzburg Hellbrunnerstr. 34, A-5020 Salzburg (Austria)
  2. TAAS, Inc., Langegasse 10/1/4, A-2540 Bad Woeslau (Austria)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
21153925
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings; Journal Volume: 1034; Journal Issue: 1; Conference: NRE-VIII: 8. International symposium on the natural radiation environment, Buzios, RJ (Brazil), 7-12 Oct 2007; Other Information: DOI: 10.1063/1.2991254; (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY; ACCIDENTS; BOMBS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; CONTAMINATION; ENVIRONMENT; EXPLOSIONS; IRRADIATION; NATURAL RADIOACTIVITY; NUCLEAR DAMAGE; POLONIUM 210; PROBABILITY; RADIATION DOSES; RADIATION EFFECTS; RADIOACTIVE AEROSOLS; RADIUM 226; RISK ASSESSMENT

Citation Formats

Friedrich, Steinhaeusler, Lyudmila, Zaitseva, and Stan, Rydell. Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides. United States: N. p., 2008. Web. doi:10.1063/1.2991254.
Friedrich, Steinhaeusler, Lyudmila, Zaitseva, & Stan, Rydell. Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides. United States. doi:10.1063/1.2991254.
Friedrich, Steinhaeusler, Lyudmila, Zaitseva, and Stan, Rydell. Thu . "Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides". United States. doi:10.1063/1.2991254.
@article{osti_21153925,
title = {Risk Due to Radiological Terror Attacks With Natural Radionuclides},
author = {Friedrich, Steinhaeusler and Lyudmila, Zaitseva and Stan, Rydell},
abstractNote = {The naturally occurring radionuclides radium (Ra-226) and polonium (Po-210) have the potential to be used for criminal acts. Analysis of international incident data contained in the Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft and Orphan Radiation Sources (CSTO), operated at the University of Salzburg, shows that several acts of murder and terrorism with natural radionuclides have already been carried out in Europe and Russia. Five different modes of attack (T) are possible: (1) Covert irradiation of an individual in order to deliver a high individual dose; (2) Covert irradiation of a group of persons delivering a large collective dose; (3) Contamination of food or drink; (4) Generation of radioactive aerosols or solutions; (5) Combination of Ra-226 with conventional explosives (Dirty Bomb).This paper assesses the risk (R) of such criminal acts in terms of: (a) Probability of terrorist motivation deploying a certain attack mode T; (b) Probability of success by the terrorists for the selected attack mode T; (c) Primary damage consequence (C) to the attacked target (activity, dose); (d) Secondary damage consequence (C') to the attacked target (psychological and socio-economic effects); (e) Probability that the consequences (C, C') cannot be brought under control, resulting in a failure to manage successfully the emergency situation due to logistical and/or technical deficits in implementing adequate countermeasures. Extensive computer modelling is used to determine the potential impact of such a criminal attack on directly affected victims and on the environment.},
doi = {10.1063/1.2991254},
journal = {AIP Conference Proceedings},
number = 1,
volume = 1034,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Aug 07 00:00:00 EDT 2008},
month = {Thu Aug 07 00:00:00 EDT 2008}
}