Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses
- Dark Cosmology Centre, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)
We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological observations. We compare the frequentist and Bayesian bounds on the effective electron neutrino mass m{sub {beta}} which the KATRIN neutrino mass experiment is expected to obtain, using both an analytical likelihood function and Monte Carlo simulations of KATRIN. Assuming a uniform prior in m{sub {beta}}, we find that a null result yields an upper bound of about 0.17 eV at 90% confidence in the Bayesian analysis, to be compared with the frequentist KATRIN reference value of 0.20 eV. This is a significant difference when judged relative to the systematic and statistical uncertainties of the experiment. On the other hand, an input m{sub {beta}}=0.35 eV, which is the KATRIN 5{sigma} detection threshold, would be detected at virtually the same level. Finally, we combine the simulated KATRIN results with cosmological data in the form of present (post-WMAP) and future (simulated Planck) observations. If an input of m{sub {beta}}=0.2 eV is assumed in our simulations, KATRIN alone excludes a zero neutrino mass at 2.2{sigma}. Adding Planck data increases the probability of detection to a median 2.7{sigma}. The analysis highlights the importance of combining cosmological and laboratory data on an equal footing.
- OSTI ID:
- 21023910
- Journal Information:
- Physical Review. D, Particles Fields, Vol. 76, Issue 11; Other Information: DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.76.113005; (c) 2007 The American Physical Society; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); ISSN 0556-2821
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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