Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
- Univ. of East Anglia and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich (GB). School of Environmental Sciences
- Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (Germany)
- Newcastle Univ. and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (GB). School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
The term 'tipping point' commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here the authors introduce the term 'tipping element' to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. They critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and they assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then the authors explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.
- OSTI ID:
- 21021712
- Journal Information:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 105, Issue 6; Other Information: doi: www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0705414105; ISSN 0027-8424
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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