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Title: A Methodology for the Quantification of Uncertainty in Best Estimate Code Physical Models

Abstract

A novel methodology based on a statistical non-parametric approach is presented in this paper. It can yield more objective quantification of code physical model uncertainty by making use of model performance information obtained from assessment studies of appropriate separate effect-tests. Uncertainties are quantified in the form of estimated probability density functions (pdfs) calculated with a newly developed non-parametric estimator, and, by applying a novel multi-dimensional clustering technique, the methodology takes into account the dependency of a model's uncertainty on system conditions. These uncertainties are the objective input information needed by code uncertainty propagation methodologies applied for assessing the accuracy of best estimate codes in nuclear systems analysis. The new methodology has been applied to the quantification of the uncertainty in the RETRAN-3D void prediction model and then used in the analysis of a double LOCA transient in an integral-test facility. This has clearly demonstrated the basic feasibility of the approach, as well as its advantages in yielding narrower uncertainty bands for quantifying the uncertainty in the code's prediction of the void fraction evolution during the transient. (authors)

Authors:
; ;  [1]
  1. Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
American Nuclear Society, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
21016418
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: 2006 International congress on advances in nuclear power plants - ICAPP'06, Reno - Nevada (United States), 4-8 Jun 2006; Other Information: Country of input: France; 21 refs; Related Information: In: Proceedings of the 2006 international congress on advances in nuclear power plants - ICAPP'06, 2734 pages.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS; ACCURACY; CHARGES; FORECASTING; INFORMATION; LOSS OF COOLANT; PERFORMANCE; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS; TEST FACILITIES; TRANSIENTS; VOID FRACTION; VOIDS

Citation Formats

Vinai, Paolo, Macian, Rafael, and Chawla, Rakesh. A Methodology for the Quantification of Uncertainty in Best Estimate Code Physical Models. United States: N. p., 2006. Web.
Vinai, Paolo, Macian, Rafael, & Chawla, Rakesh. A Methodology for the Quantification of Uncertainty in Best Estimate Code Physical Models. United States.
Vinai, Paolo, Macian, Rafael, and Chawla, Rakesh. Sat . "A Methodology for the Quantification of Uncertainty in Best Estimate Code Physical Models". United States.
@article{osti_21016418,
title = {A Methodology for the Quantification of Uncertainty in Best Estimate Code Physical Models},
author = {Vinai, Paolo and Macian, Rafael and Chawla, Rakesh},
abstractNote = {A novel methodology based on a statistical non-parametric approach is presented in this paper. It can yield more objective quantification of code physical model uncertainty by making use of model performance information obtained from assessment studies of appropriate separate effect-tests. Uncertainties are quantified in the form of estimated probability density functions (pdfs) calculated with a newly developed non-parametric estimator, and, by applying a novel multi-dimensional clustering technique, the methodology takes into account the dependency of a model's uncertainty on system conditions. These uncertainties are the objective input information needed by code uncertainty propagation methodologies applied for assessing the accuracy of best estimate codes in nuclear systems analysis. The new methodology has been applied to the quantification of the uncertainty in the RETRAN-3D void prediction model and then used in the analysis of a double LOCA transient in an integral-test facility. This has clearly demonstrated the basic feasibility of the approach, as well as its advantages in yielding narrower uncertainty bands for quantifying the uncertainty in the code's prediction of the void fraction evolution during the transient. (authors)},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2006},
month = {7}
}

Conference:
Other availability
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