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Title: Technology disrupted

Abstract

Three years ago, the author presented a report on power generation technologies which in summary said 'no technology available today has the potential of becoming transformational or disruptive in the next five to ten years'. In 2006 the company completed another strategic view research report covering the electric power, oil, gas and unconventional energy industries and manufacturing industry. This article summarises the strategic view findings and then revisits some of the scenarios presented in 2003. The cost per megawatt-hour of the alternatives is given for plants ordered in 2005 and then in 2025. The issue of greenhouse gas regulation is dealt with through carbon sequestration and carbon allowances or an equivalent carbon tax. Results reveal substantial variability through nuclear power, hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass remain competitive through every scenario. Greenhouse gas scenario analysis shows coal still be viable, albeit less competitive against nuclear and renewable technologies. A carbon tax or allowance at $24 per metric ton has the same effect on IGCC cost as a sequestration mandate. However, the latter would hurt gas plants much more than a tax or allowance. Sequestering CO{sub 2} from a gas plant is almost as costly per megawatt-hour as for coal. 5 refs.,more » 5 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Authors:
 [1]
  1. CH2M Hill (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
20885846
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Power Engineering (Barrington); Journal Volume: 111; Journal Issue: 2
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS; POWER GENERATION; ECONOMICS; ELECTRIC POWER; COAL; NATURAL GAS; RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES; CAPITALIZED COST; COST; COMBINED-CYCLE POWER PLANTS; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; COAL GASIFICATION; COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS; REGULATIONS; CAPACITY; TAXES; PRICES; TECHNOLOGY UTILIZATION

Citation Formats

Papatheodorou, Y. Technology disrupted. United States: N. p., 2007. Web.
Papatheodorou, Y. Technology disrupted. United States.
Papatheodorou, Y. Thu . "Technology disrupted". United States. doi:.
@article{osti_20885846,
title = {Technology disrupted},
author = {Papatheodorou, Y.},
abstractNote = {Three years ago, the author presented a report on power generation technologies which in summary said 'no technology available today has the potential of becoming transformational or disruptive in the next five to ten years'. In 2006 the company completed another strategic view research report covering the electric power, oil, gas and unconventional energy industries and manufacturing industry. This article summarises the strategic view findings and then revisits some of the scenarios presented in 2003. The cost per megawatt-hour of the alternatives is given for plants ordered in 2005 and then in 2025. The issue of greenhouse gas regulation is dealt with through carbon sequestration and carbon allowances or an equivalent carbon tax. Results reveal substantial variability through nuclear power, hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass remain competitive through every scenario. Greenhouse gas scenario analysis shows coal still be viable, albeit less competitive against nuclear and renewable technologies. A carbon tax or allowance at $24 per metric ton has the same effect on IGCC cost as a sequestration mandate. However, the latter would hurt gas plants much more than a tax or allowance. Sequestering CO{sub 2} from a gas plant is almost as costly per megawatt-hour as for coal. 5 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.},
doi = {},
journal = {Power Engineering (Barrington)},
number = 2,
volume = 111,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Thu Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}