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Title: Using economic analysis to evaluate the potential of multimodality therapy for elderly patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer

Abstract

Purpose: Development of new and expensive drugs with activity against pancreatic cancer has made economic considerations more relevant to treatment decision-making for advanced disease. Economic modeling can be used to explore the potential of such novel therapies and to inform clinical trial design. Methods and Materials: We developed a Markov model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of radiation plus fluorouracil (RT-FU) relative to no treatment in elderly patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) and to determine the economic potential of radiation plus gemcitabine (RT-GEM), a novel regimen for this disease. We used the SEER-Medicare database to estimate effectiveness and costs supplemented by data from the literature where necessary. Results: Relative to no treatment, RT-FU was associated with a cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $68,724/QALY in the base case analysis. Compared with RT-FU, the ICER for RT-GEM was below $100,000/QALY when the risk of dying with the new regimen was <85% than with the standard regimen. However, >1,000 subjects would be necessary to demonstrate this level of efficacy in a randomized trial. The ICER of RT-GEM was most sensitive to utility values, and, at lower efficacy levels, to costs of gemcitabine and treatment-related toxicity. Conclusions: In elderly patients with LAPC, RT-FU ismore » a cost-effective alternative to no treatment. The novel regimen of RT-GEM is likely to be cost-effective at any clinically meaningful benefit, but quality-of-life issues, drug acquisition, and toxicity-related costs may be relevant, especially at lower efficacy levels.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [2]
  1. Department of Adult Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA (United States) and Department of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto, Ontario (Canada). E-mail: monika.krzyzanowska@uhn.on.ca
  2. Department of Adult Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA (United States)
  3. Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
20850316
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics; Journal Volume: 67; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2006.07.1390; PII: S0360-3016(06)03002-1; Copyright (c) 2007 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, Netherlands, All rights reserved; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE; CARCINOMAS; CLINICAL TRIALS; COST; DECISION MAKING; DESIGN; DRUGS; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; HEALTH HAZARDS; MARKOV PROCESS; PANCREAS; PATIENTS; SIMULATION; THERAPY; TOXICITY

Citation Formats

Krzyzanowska, Monika K., Earle, Craig C., Kuntz, Karen M., and Weeks, Jane C. Using economic analysis to evaluate the potential of multimodality therapy for elderly patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.1016/j.ijrobp.2006.07.1390.
Krzyzanowska, Monika K., Earle, Craig C., Kuntz, Karen M., & Weeks, Jane C. Using economic analysis to evaluate the potential of multimodality therapy for elderly patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer. United States. doi:10.1016/j.ijrobp.2006.07.1390.
Krzyzanowska, Monika K., Earle, Craig C., Kuntz, Karen M., and Weeks, Jane C. Mon . "Using economic analysis to evaluate the potential of multimodality therapy for elderly patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer". United States. doi:10.1016/j.ijrobp.2006.07.1390.
@article{osti_20850316,
title = {Using economic analysis to evaluate the potential of multimodality therapy for elderly patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer},
author = {Krzyzanowska, Monika K. and Earle, Craig C. and Kuntz, Karen M. and Weeks, Jane C.},
abstractNote = {Purpose: Development of new and expensive drugs with activity against pancreatic cancer has made economic considerations more relevant to treatment decision-making for advanced disease. Economic modeling can be used to explore the potential of such novel therapies and to inform clinical trial design. Methods and Materials: We developed a Markov model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of radiation plus fluorouracil (RT-FU) relative to no treatment in elderly patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) and to determine the economic potential of radiation plus gemcitabine (RT-GEM), a novel regimen for this disease. We used the SEER-Medicare database to estimate effectiveness and costs supplemented by data from the literature where necessary. Results: Relative to no treatment, RT-FU was associated with a cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $68,724/QALY in the base case analysis. Compared with RT-FU, the ICER for RT-GEM was below $100,000/QALY when the risk of dying with the new regimen was <85% than with the standard regimen. However, >1,000 subjects would be necessary to demonstrate this level of efficacy in a randomized trial. The ICER of RT-GEM was most sensitive to utility values, and, at lower efficacy levels, to costs of gemcitabine and treatment-related toxicity. Conclusions: In elderly patients with LAPC, RT-FU is a cost-effective alternative to no treatment. The novel regimen of RT-GEM is likely to be cost-effective at any clinically meaningful benefit, but quality-of-life issues, drug acquisition, and toxicity-related costs may be relevant, especially at lower efficacy levels.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijrobp.2006.07.1390},
journal = {International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics},
number = 1,
volume = 67,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}
  • Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) achieves excellent local control for locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC), but may increase late duodenal toxicity. Volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) delivers intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with a rotating gantry rather than multiple fixed beams. This study dosimetrically evaluates the feasibility of implementing duodenal constraints for SBRT using VMAT vs IMRT. Non–duodenal sparing (NS) and duodenal-sparing (DS) VMAT and IMRT plans delivering 25 Gy in 1 fraction were generated for 15 patients with LAPC. DS plans were constrained to duodenal D{sub max} of<30 Gy at any point. VMAT used 1 360° coplanar arc with 4° spacingmore » between control points, whereas IMRT used 9 coplanar beams with fixed gantry positions at 40° angles. Dosimetric parameters for target volumes and organs at risk were compared for DS planning vs NS planning and VMAT vs IMRT using paired-sample Wilcoxon signed rank tests. Both DS VMAT and DS IMRT achieved significantly reduced duodenal D{sub mean}, D{sub max}, D{sub 1cc}, D{sub 4%}, and V{sub 20} {sub Gy} compared with NS plans (all p≤0.002). DS constraints compromised target coverage for IMRT as demonstrated by reduced V{sub 95%} (p = 0.01) and D{sub mean} (p = 0.02), but not for VMAT. DS constraints resulted in increased dose to right kidney, spinal cord, stomach, and liver for VMAT. Direct comparison of DS VMAT and DS IMRT revealed that VMAT was superior in sparing the left kidney (p<0.001) and the spinal cord (p<0.001), whereas IMRT was superior in sparing the stomach (p = 0.05) and the liver (p = 0.003). DS VMAT required 21% fewer monitor units (p<0.001) and delivered treatment 2.4 minutes faster (p<0.001) than DS IMRT. Implementing DS constraints during SBRT planning for LAPC can significantly reduce duodenal point or volumetric dose parameters for both VMAT and IMRT. The primary consequence of implementing DS constraints for VMAT is increased dose to other organs at risk, whereas for IMRT it is compromised target coverage. These findings suggest clinical situations where each technique may be most useful if DS constraints are to be employed.« less
  • Purpose: To identify prognostic biomarkers in pancreatic cancer using high-throughput quantitative image analysis. Methods and Materials: In this institutional review board–approved study, we retrospectively analyzed images and outcomes for 139 locally advanced pancreatic cancer patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). The overall population was split into a training cohort (n=90) and a validation cohort (n=49) according to the time of treatment. We extracted quantitative imaging characteristics from pre-SBRT {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography, including statistical, morphologic, and texture features. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was built to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using 162more » robust image features. To avoid over-fitting, we applied the elastic net to obtain a sparse set of image features, whose linear combination constitutes a prognostic imaging signature. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the association with OS, and concordance index (CI) was used to evaluate the survival prediction accuracy. Results: The prognostic imaging signature included 7 features characterizing different tumor phenotypes, including shape, intensity, and texture. On the validation cohort, univariate analysis showed that this prognostic signature was significantly associated with OS (P=.002, hazard ratio 2.74), which improved upon conventional imaging predictors including tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and total legion glycolysis (P=.018-.028, hazard ratio 1.51-1.57). On multivariate analysis, the proposed signature was the only significant prognostic index (P=.037, hazard ratio 3.72) when adjusted for conventional imaging and clinical factors (P=.123-.870, hazard ratio 0.53-1.30). In terms of CI, the proposed signature scored 0.66 and was significantly better than competing prognostic indices (CI 0.48-0.64, Wilcoxon rank sum test P<1e-6). Conclusion: Quantitative analysis identified novel {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography image features that showed improved prognostic value over conventional imaging metrics. If validated in large, prospective cohorts, the new prognostic signature might be used to identify patients for individualized risk-adaptive therapy.« less
  • Background: Recursive partitioning analysis has shown that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status (PS) ≥2, male sex, and age ≥70 years are prognostic of poor outcome in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) patients. Concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CRT) improves survival, but toxicity is a concern in this frail patient cohort. We therefore opened this trial of concurrent definitive thoracic radiation therapy (XRT) and cetuximab, followed by consolidation docetaxel plus cetuximab. Methods and Materials: Eligible patients had pathologically proven, unresectable LA-NSCLC (stage IIA-“dry” IIIB). They had ECOG PS 2 or weight loss ≥5% in 3 months or were aged ≥70 years. Themore » primary objective was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary objectives included overall survival (OS) and overall response rate (ORR). Results: From May 2008 to November 2010, a total of 32 patients were evaluated in our single-institution, institutional review board–approved prospective clinical trial. Three patients were screen failures and 2 more withdrew consent before treatment, leaving 27 evaluable patients. One was removed because of poor therapy compliance, and 2 were taken off trial because of grade 3 cetuximab-related toxicities but were followed up under intent-to-treat analysis. The median follow-up and OS were 10.5 months. The median PFS was 7.5 months. The ORR was 59.3%. Eight early/sudden deaths were reported. Upon review, 6 patients developed severe pulmonary complications. Conclusions: Patients enrolled in this trial had improved OS compared with poor-PS historical controls (10.5 vs 6.4 months) and comparable OS to good-PS historical controls (10.5 vs 11.9 months) treated with XRT alone. However, pulmonary toxicity is a concern. Consolidative cetuximab/docetaxel, in conjunction with high-dose radiation therapy, is a putative cause.« less
  • Purpose: Although previous studies have demonstrated the prognostic value of positron emission tomography (PET) parameters in other malignancies, the role of PET in pancreatic cancer has yet to be well established. We analyzed the prognostic utility of PET for patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) undergoing fractionated stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Materials and Methods: Thirty-two patients with LAPC in a prospective clinical trial received up to 3 doses of gemcitabine, followed by 33 Gy in 5 fractions of 6.6 Gy, using SBRT. All patients received a baseline PET scan prior to SBRT (pre-SBRT PET). Metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesionmore » glycolysis (TLG), and maximum and peak standardized uptake values (SUV{sub max} and SUV{sub peak}) on pre-SBRT PET scans were calculated using custom-designed software. Disease was measured at a threshold based on the liver SUV, using the equation Liver{sub mean} + [2 × Liver{sub sd}]. Median values of PET parameters were used as cutoffs when assessing their prognostic potential through Cox regression analyses. Results: Of the 32 patients, the majority were male (n=19, 59%), 65 years or older (n=21, 66%), and had tumors located in the pancreatic head (n=27, 84%). Twenty-seven patients (84%) received induction gemcitabine prior to SBRT. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 18.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7-22.0). An MTV of 26.8 cm{sup 3} or greater (hazard ratio [HR] 4.46, 95% CI 1.64-5.88, P<.003) and TLG of 70.9 or greater (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.18-8.02, P<.021) on pre-SBRT PET scan were associated with inferior overall survival on univariate analysis. Both pre-SBRT MTV (HR 5.13, 95% CI 1.19-22.21, P=.029) and TLG (HR 3.34, 95% CI 1.07-10.48, P=.038) remained independently associated with overall survival in separate multivariate analyses. Conclusions: Pre-SBRT MTV and TLG are potential predictive factors for overall survival in patients with LAPC and may assist in tailoring therapy.« less
  • Purpose: To assess the role of coregistered {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in detecting radiographically occult distant metastasis (DM) at staging in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) and to study whether FDG-PET parameters can predict relatively long-term survival in patients who are more likely to benefit from chemoradiation therapy (CRT). Methods and Materials: From our institutional database, we identified 388 LAPC patients with M0 on conventional computed tomography (CT) who were planned to undergo CRT. Coregistered FDG-PET staging was offered to all patients, and follow-up FDG-PET was used at the clinical discretion of the physician. Results: FDG-PET detectedmore » unsuspected CT-occult DM in 33% of all 388 patients and allowed them to receive systemic therapy immediately. The remaining 260 patients (PET-M0) underwent CRT selectively as an initial treatment. Early DM arose in 13.1% of 260 patients, and the 1-year estimated locoregional recurrence rate was 5.4%. Median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 14.6 and 9.3 months, respectively, at a median follow-up time of 32.3 months (range, 10-99.1 months). Patients with a baseline standardized uptake value (SUV) <3.5 and/or SUV decline ≥60% had significantly better OS and PFS than those having none, even after adjustment for all potential confounding variables (all P<.001). Conclusions: FDG-PET can detect radiographically occult DM at staging in one-third of patients and spare them from the potentially toxic therapy. Additionally, FDG-PET parameters including baseline SUV and SUV changes may serve as useful clinical markers for predicting the prognosis in LAPC patients.« less