skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients

Abstract

Purpose: To develop clinical prediction models for local regional recurrence (Lr) of breast carcinoma after mastectomy that will be superior to the conventional measures of tumor size and nodal status. Methods and Materials: Clinical information from 1,010 invasive breast cancer patients who had primary modified radical mastectomy formed the database of the training and testing of clinical prognostic and prediction models of LRR. Cox proportional hazards analysis and Bayesian tree analysis were the core methodologies from which these models were built. To generate a prognostic index model, 15 clinical variables were examined for their impact on LRR. Patients were stratified by lymph node involvement (<4 vs. {>=}4) and local regional status (recurrent vs. control) and then, within strata, randomly split into training and test data sets of equal size. To establish prediction tree models, 255 patients were selected by the criteria of having had LRR (53 patients) or no evidence of LRR without postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) (202 patients). Results: With these models, patients can be divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups on the basis of axillary nodal status, estrogen receptor status, lymphovascular invasion, and age at diagnosis. In the low-risk group, there is no influence of PMRT on eithermore » LRR or survival. For intermediate-risk patients, PMRT improves LR control but not metastases-free or overall survival. For the high-risk patients, however, PMRT improves both LR control and metastasis-free and overall survival. Conclusion: The prognostic score and predictive index are useful methods to estimate the risk of LRR in breast cancer patients after mastectomy and for estimating the potential benefits of PMRT. These models provide additional information criteria for selection of patients for PMRT, compared with the traditional selection criteria of nodal status and tumor size.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [4];  [7];  [6];  [4];  [8];  [3];  [8];  [4];  [9]
  1. Department of Radiation Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China) and Department of Research, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China) and Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (United States). E-mail: skye@mail.kfcc.org.tw
  2. Department of Research, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China)
  3. Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (United States)
  4. (United States)
  5. Department of Pathology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China)
  6. Department of Radiation Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China)
  7. Department of Surgical Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China)
  8. Department of Medical Oncology, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan (China)
  9. Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
20793425
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics; Journal Volume: 64; Journal Issue: 5; Other Information: DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2005.11.015; PII: S0360-3016(05)02968-8; Copyright (c) 2006 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE; CARCINOMAS; DIAGNOSIS; ESTROGENS; FORECASTING; HAZARDS; LYMPH NODES; MAMMARY GLANDS; METASTASES; PATIENTS; RADIOTHERAPY; RECEPTORS; TRAINING

Citation Formats

Cheng, Skye Hongiun, Horng, C.-F., Clarke, Jennifer L., Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Tsou, M.-H., Tsai, Stella Y., Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Chen, C.-M., Jian, James J., Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Liu, M.-C., West, Mike, Huang, Andrew T., Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, and Prosnitz, Leonard R.. Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients. United States: N. p., 2006. Web. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2005.1.
Cheng, Skye Hongiun, Horng, C.-F., Clarke, Jennifer L., Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Tsou, M.-H., Tsai, Stella Y., Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Chen, C.-M., Jian, James J., Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Liu, M.-C., West, Mike, Huang, Andrew T., Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, & Prosnitz, Leonard R.. Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients. United States. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2005.1.
Cheng, Skye Hongiun, Horng, C.-F., Clarke, Jennifer L., Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Tsou, M.-H., Tsai, Stella Y., Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Chen, C.-M., Jian, James J., Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, Liu, M.-C., West, Mike, Huang, Andrew T., Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, and Prosnitz, Leonard R.. Sat . "Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients". United States. doi:10.1016/J.IJROBP.2005.1.
@article{osti_20793425,
title = {Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients},
author = {Cheng, Skye Hongiun and Horng, C.-F. and Clarke, Jennifer L. and Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina and Tsou, M.-H. and Tsai, Stella Y. and Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina and Chen, C.-M. and Jian, James J. and Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina and Liu, M.-C. and West, Mike and Huang, Andrew T. and Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina and Prosnitz, Leonard R.},
abstractNote = {Purpose: To develop clinical prediction models for local regional recurrence (Lr) of breast carcinoma after mastectomy that will be superior to the conventional measures of tumor size and nodal status. Methods and Materials: Clinical information from 1,010 invasive breast cancer patients who had primary modified radical mastectomy formed the database of the training and testing of clinical prognostic and prediction models of LRR. Cox proportional hazards analysis and Bayesian tree analysis were the core methodologies from which these models were built. To generate a prognostic index model, 15 clinical variables were examined for their impact on LRR. Patients were stratified by lymph node involvement (<4 vs. {>=}4) and local regional status (recurrent vs. control) and then, within strata, randomly split into training and test data sets of equal size. To establish prediction tree models, 255 patients were selected by the criteria of having had LRR (53 patients) or no evidence of LRR without postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) (202 patients). Results: With these models, patients can be divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups on the basis of axillary nodal status, estrogen receptor status, lymphovascular invasion, and age at diagnosis. In the low-risk group, there is no influence of PMRT on either LRR or survival. For intermediate-risk patients, PMRT improves LR control but not metastases-free or overall survival. For the high-risk patients, however, PMRT improves both LR control and metastasis-free and overall survival. Conclusion: The prognostic score and predictive index are useful methods to estimate the risk of LRR in breast cancer patients after mastectomy and for estimating the potential benefits of PMRT. These models provide additional information criteria for selection of patients for PMRT, compared with the traditional selection criteria of nodal status and tumor size.},
doi = {10.1016/J.IJROBP.2005.1},
journal = {International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics},
number = 5,
volume = 64,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Apr 01 00:00:00 EST 2006},
month = {Sat Apr 01 00:00:00 EST 2006}
}
  • Purpose: We previously developed a prognostic index that stratified patients treated with breast conservation therapy (BCT) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy into groups with different risks for local-regional recurrence (LRR). The purpose of this study was to compare the rates of LRR as a function of prognostic index score for patients treated with BCT or mastectomy plus radiation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 815 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation. Patients were assigned an index score from 0 to 4 and given 1 point for the presence of each factor: clinical N2 to N3 disease, lymphovascularmore » invasion, pathologic size >2 cm, and multifocal residual disease. Results: The 10-year LRR rates were very low and similar between the mastectomy and BCT groups for patients with an index score of 0 or 1. For patients with a score of 2, LRR trended lower for those treated with mastectomy vs. BCT (12% vs. 28%, p = 0.28). For patients with a score of 3 to 4, LRR was significantly lower for those treated with mastectomy vs. BCT (19% vs. 61%, p = 0.009). Conclusions: This analysis suggests that BCT can provide excellent local-regional treatment for the vast majority of patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. For the few patients with a score of 3 to 4, LRR was >60% after BCT and was <20% with mastectomy. If these findings are confirmed in larger randomized studies, the prognostic index may be useful in helping to select the type of surgical treatment for patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation.« less
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine local-regional recurrence (LRR) risk according to whether postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) was used to treat breast cancer patients with clinical T3N0 disease who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and mastectomy. Methodsand Materials: Clinicopathology data from 162 patients with clinical T3N0 breast cancer who received NAC and underwent mastectomy were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 119 patients received PMRT, and 43 patients did not. The median number of axillary lymph nodes (LNs) dissected was 15. Actuarial rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Results: At a medianmore » follow-up of 75 months, 15 of 162 patients developed LRR. For all patients, the 5-year LRR rate was 9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4%-14%). The 5-year LRR rate for those who received PMRT was 4% (95% CI, 1%-9%) vs. 24% (95% CI, 10%-39%) for those who did not receive PMRT (p <0.001). A significantly higher proportion of irradiated patients had pathology involved LNs and were {<=}40 years old. Among patients who had pathology involved LNs, the LRR rate was lower in those who received PMRT (p <0.001). A similar trend was observed for those who did not have pathology involved LN disease. Among nonirradiated patients, the appearance of pathologic LN disease after NAC was the only clinicopathologic factor examined that significantly correlated with the risk of LRR. Conclusions: Breast cancer patients with clinical T3N0 disease treated with NAC and mastectomy but without PMRT had a significant risk of LRR, even when there was no pathologic evidence of LN involvement present after NAC. PMRT was effective in reducing the LRR rate. We suggest PMRT should be considered for patients with clinical T3N0 disease.« less
  • Purpose: To evaluate locoregional recurrence according to nodal status in women with T1 to T2 breast cancer and zero to three positive nodes (0-3N+) treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS). Methods and Materials: The study subjects comprised 5,688 women referred to the British Columbia Cancer Agency between 1989 and 1999 with pT1 to T2, 0-3N+, M0 breast cancer, who underwent breast-conserving surgery with clear margins and radiotherapy (RT) of the whole breast. The 10-year Kaplan-Meier local, regional, and locoregional recurrence (LR, RR, and LRR, respectively) were compared between the N0 (n = 4,433) and 1-3N+ (n = 1,255) cohorts. The LRRmore » was also examined in patients with one to three positive nodes (1-3N+) treated with and without nodal RT. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression modeling. Results: Median follow-up was 8.6 years. Systemic therapy was used in 97% of 1-3N+ and 41% of N0 patients. Nodal RT was used in 35% of 1-3N+ patients. The 10-year recurrence rates in N0 and 1-3N+ cohorts were as follows: LR 5.1% vs. 5.8% (p = 0.04); RR 2.3% vs. 6.1% (p < 0.001), and LRR 6.7% vs. 10.1% (p < 0.001). Among 817 1-3N+ patients treated without nodal RT, 10-year LRR were 13.8% with age <50 years, 20.3% with Grade III, and 23.4% with estrogen receptor (ER)-negative disease. On multivariate analysis, 1-3N+ status was associated with significantly higher LRR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.85; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-2.55, p < 0.001), whereas nodal RT significantly reduced LRR (HR, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.92, p = 0.02). Conclusion: Patients with 1-3N+ and young age, Grade III, or ER-negative disease have high LRR risks approximating 15% to 20% despite BCS, whole-breast RT and systemic therapy. These patients may benefit with more comprehensive RT volume encompassing the regional nodes.« less
  • Two hundred twenty-four patients with their first, isolated local-regional recurrence of breast cancer were irradiated with curative intent. Patients who had previous chest wall or regional lymphatic irradiation were not included in the study. With a median follow-up of 46 months (range 24 to 241 months), the 5- and 10-year survival for the entire group were 43% and 26%, respectively. Overall, 57% of the patients were projected to be loco-regionally controlled at 5 years. The 5-year local-regional tumor control was best for patients with isolated chest wall recurrences (63%), intermediate for nodal recurrences (45%), and poor for concomitant chest wallmore » and nodal recurrences (27%). In patients with solitary chest wall recurrences, large field radiotherapy encompassing the entire chest wall resulted in a 5- and 10-year freedom from chest wall re-recurrence of 75% and 63% in contrast to 36% and 18% with small field irradiation (p = 0.0001). For the group with recurrences completely excised, tumor control was adequate at all doses ranging from 4500 to 7000 cGy. For the recurrences less than 3 cm, 100% were controlled at doses greater than or equal to 6000 cGy versus 76% at lower doses. No dose response could be demonstrated for the larger lesions. The supraclavicular failure rate was 16% without elective radiotherapy versus 6% with elective radiotherapy (p = 0.0489). Prophylactic irradiation of the uninvolved chest wall decreased the subsequent re-recurrence rate (17% versus 27%), but the difference is not statistically significant (p = .32). The incidence of chest wall re-recurrence was 12% with doses greater than or equal to 5000 cGy compared to 27% with no elective radiotherapy, but again was not statistically significant (p = .20). Axillary and internal mammary failures were infrequent, regardless of prophylactic treatment.« less
  • Purpose: To determine whether Ki67 expression and breast cancer subtypes could predict locoregional recurrence (LRR) and influence the postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) decision in breast cancer (BC) patients with pathologic negative lymph nodes (pN0) after modified radical mastectomy (MRM). Methods and Materials: A total of 699 BC patients with pN0 status after MRM, treated between 2001 and 2008, were identified from a prospective database in a single institution. Tumors were classified by intrinsic molecular subtype as luminal A or B, HER2+, and triple-negative (TN) using estrogen, progesterone, and HER2 receptors. Multivariate Cox analysis was used to determine the risk of LRRmore » associated with intrinsic subtypes and Ki67 expression, adjusting for known prognostic factors. Results: At a median follow-up of 56 months, 17 patients developed LRR. Five-year LRR-free survival and overall survival in the entire population were 97%, and 94.7%, respectively, with no difference between the PMRT (n=191) and no-PMRT (n=508) subgroups. No constructed subtype was associated with an increased risk of LRR. Ki67 >20% was the only independent prognostic factor associated with increased LRR (hazard ratio, 4.18; 95% CI, 1.11-15.77; P<.0215). However, PMRT was not associated with better locoregional control in patients with proliferative tumors. Conclusions: Ki67 expression but not molecular subtypes are predictors of locoregional recurrence in breast cancer patients with negative lymph nodes after MRM. The benefit of adjuvant RT in patients with proliferative tumors should be further investigated in prospective studies.« less