skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Outlook for SO{sub 2} allowance prices: are higher prices here to stay?

Abstract

Continued drawdowns of the SO{sub 2} allowance 'bank' through 2007 will most likely cause SO{sub 2} allowance prices to remain well above the 2003 levels during 2006-07. And in 2010 and beyond, stricter regulation of SO{sub 2} emissions again will exert upward pressure on SO{sub 2} allowance prices. In between the potential exists for a decline in prices from current levels. Regardless, given the massive reduction in the amount of emissions allowed over the 2010-2015 time period and the continuing near-term depletion of the bank, the volatility in SO{sub 2} allowance prices is likely to be significantly greater going forward than it has been in the past. Generators should plan accordingly. 3 figs.

Authors:
 [1]
  1. Pace Global Energy Services, LLC (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
20727726
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Coal Age; Journal Volume: 111; Journal Issue: 2; Other Information: gaalaast@paceglobal.com
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS; SULFUR DIOXIDE; ALLOCATIONS; PRICES; EMISSIONS TRADING; USA; FORECASTING; FLUE GAS; FOSSIL-FUEL POWER PLANTS; EMISSION

Citation Formats

Gaalaas, T. Outlook for SO{sub 2} allowance prices: are higher prices here to stay?. United States: N. p., 2006. Web.
Gaalaas, T. Outlook for SO{sub 2} allowance prices: are higher prices here to stay?. United States.
Gaalaas, T. Wed . "Outlook for SO{sub 2} allowance prices: are higher prices here to stay?". United States. doi:.
@article{osti_20727726,
title = {Outlook for SO{sub 2} allowance prices: are higher prices here to stay?},
author = {Gaalaas, T.},
abstractNote = {Continued drawdowns of the SO{sub 2} allowance 'bank' through 2007 will most likely cause SO{sub 2} allowance prices to remain well above the 2003 levels during 2006-07. And in 2010 and beyond, stricter regulation of SO{sub 2} emissions again will exert upward pressure on SO{sub 2} allowance prices. In between the potential exists for a decline in prices from current levels. Regardless, given the massive reduction in the amount of emissions allowed over the 2010-2015 time period and the continuing near-term depletion of the bank, the volatility in SO{sub 2} allowance prices is likely to be significantly greater going forward than it has been in the past. Generators should plan accordingly. 3 figs.},
doi = {},
journal = {Coal Age},
number = 2,
volume = 111,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2006},
month = {Wed Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2006}
}
  • Several states require electric utilities to include estimates of external environmental costs ( adders'') in economic comparisons of conservation and supply alternatives by electric utilities. What are these costs when emissions are subject to a tradeable allowance system, as SO[sub 2] emissions by US utilities are In the simplest case, the social cost of additional emissions at a location then equals: (1) The allowance price plus (2) the external cost of those emissions minus the external costs avoided because emissions at other locations decrease. Emissions elsewhere must decrease because the total number of allowances is fixed. Since allowances are anmore » internal cost, the appropriate adder is just the second quantity. Its value can be positive or negative. If negative, this implies that the local state regulatory commission should encourage emissions in it jurisdiction because they cause less damage then if emitted elsewhere. The general results is unaffected by the presence of local emission restrictions. However, if other jurisdictions also impose adders, the social cost expression becomes more complex.« less
  • The article examines the US SO{sub 2} allowance prices after the Bush Administration announced its Clear Skies Initiative to reduce the emissions of SO{sub 2}, NOx and mercury from electric generating plants in February 2002. It concludes that high SO{sub 2} allowance prices are not sustainable. 3 figs.
  • This paper presents an analysis of the reduction in SO{sub 2} emissions by electric utilities between 1985 and 1993. We find that, as of 1993, emissions had been reduced for reasons largely unrelated to the emission reduction mandate incorporated in Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The principal reason appears to be the change in the economics of coal choice that resulted from the remarkable decline in rail rates for low sulfur western coal delivered to higher sulfur coal-fired plants in the Midwest. Consequently, one of the reasons that allowance prices are lower than expected is thatmore » less sulfur need be removed to meet the Title IV caps on aggregate SO{sub x} emissions.« less
  • New complexes, mer,trans,M(CO)/sub 3/(PR/sub 3/)/sub 2/(SO/sub 2/) (M = Mo,W; R = Ph,Cy,i-Pr) (I), cis,trans-Mo(CO)/sub 2/-(PPh/sub 3/)/sub 2/(SO/sub 2/)(L) (L = NCMe,py,CNCy,CN-t-Bu and CN(p-tolyl))(II), and (Mo(CO)/sub 2/(py)(PPh/sub 3/)(..mu..-SO/sub 2/))/sub 2/, have been prepared and characterized by infrared spectroscopy, /sup 17/O and /sup 31/P NMR spectroscopy, and X-ray crystallography. Syntheses for fac-Mo(CO)/sub 3/(n/sup 2/-SO/sub 2/)(LL) (LL = dppe,bpy,phen,2 py) have also been developed. Depending upon L, II has been found to coordinate SO/sub 2/ either in the S-bonded (n/sup 1/ planar) or O,S-bonded (n/sup 2/) geometries. Remarkably, for L = CNCy or CN-t-Bu, II has been found to contain, in themore » solid state, an apparent equimixture of both coordination types. Isomerization of fac-M(CO)/sub 3/(dppe)(n/sup 2/-SO/sub 2/) (M=Mo,w; dppe = 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino)ethane) to an n/sup 1/-planar SO/sub 2/ form, mer-M(CO)/sub 3/(dppe)(SO/sub 2/), has also been found to occur. Thus, control of the SO/sub 2/ coordination geometry has been achieved by varying either the electronic properties of the ancillary ligands or their disposition with respect to the SO/sub 2/. The X-ray crystal structure of mer,trans-Mo(CO)/sub 3/(P-i-Pr/sub 3/)/sub 2/(SO/sub 2/) revealed n/sup 1/-planar SO/sub 2/ binding, the first example of this geometry for group 6 metals. The M-S distance, 2.239 (3) angstrom, is the longest such distance for this geometry recorded to date. Crystal data: Pbca, Z=8, a=24.712(8) angstrom, b=16.033(6) angstrom, c=14.058(5) angstrom, R=0.079 for 2934 reflections with Igreater than or equal to2sigma(I). The structure of (Mo(CO)/sub 2/(py)(PPh/sub 3/)(..mu..-SO/sub 2/))/sub 2/ showed a novel SO/sub 2/ bridging geometry in which all three atoms of SO/sub 2/ are metal coordinated. Crystal data: P1, Z=1, a=14.883(4) angstrom, b=9.264(2) angstrom, c=10.808(2) angstrom, R=0.039 for 3282 reflections with Igreater than or equal to2sigma(I).« less
  • Sulfur dioxide reacts with [PPN]{sub 2}[MFe{sub 3}(CO){sub 14}] (M = Cr, Mo, W) (PPN = bistriphenylphosphonium iminium) to produce [PPN]{sub 2}[Fe{sub 3}(CO){sub 9}({mu}{sub 3},{eta}{sup 2}-SO{sub 2})] (1) and [PPN]{sub 2}[Fe{sub 3}(CO){sub 8}({mu}-SO{sub 2}){mu}{sub 3}-S] (2), which were characterized by infrared spectroscopy, {sup 13}C NMR, and X-ray crystallography. Further reaction of 1 with sulfur dioxide results in the formation of 2 in 48% yield. Reaction of SO{sub 2} with [PPN]{sub 2}[Fe{sub 4}(CO){sub 13}] yields [PPN]{sub 2}[Fe{sub 2}(CO){sub 6}({mu}-SO{sub 2}){sub 2}] (3) which was characterized by infrared spectroscopy, {sup 13}C NMR, mass spectrometry, and X-ray crystallography. One equivalent of sulfur dioxide withmore » [PPN]{sub 2}[MFe{sub 3}(CO){sub 14}C] (M = Cr, W) produces [PPN]{sub 2}[Fe{sub 3}(CO){sub 8}({mu}-SO{sub 2})-({mu}{sub 3}-CCO)] (4), which on further reaction with SO{sub 2} gives the known cluster [PPN]{sub 2}[Fe{sub 3}(CO){sub 7}({mu}-SO{sub 2}){sub 2}({mu}{sub 3}-CCO)] (5). An excess of sulfur dioxide with [MFe{sub 3}(CO){sub n}C]{sup x{minus}} (M = Cr, W: n = 13, x = 2; M = Rh: n = 12, x = 1; M = Mn: n = 13, x = 1) produced 5 as the only identified product.« less