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Title: Costs and technology role for different levels of CO{sub 2} concentration stabilization

Abstract

In order to evaluate the costs and technological options by region for various targets of CO{sub 2} emission reduction, a world energy systems model was developed that spans a century and comprises 77 regional divisions. Several case studies were conducted for this evaluation using IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenarios as baselines; and three CO{sub 2} emission stabilization targets of 650, 550 and 450 ppmv for each baseline. Further, in order to evaluate regional differences, an additional case study was conducted, reflecting the current world situation of reduction in emissions. With regard to the 550 ppmv stabilization case under the SRES B2 scenario, it was assumed that all Annex I countries except the US comply with the Kyoto target, the US achieves its target of emissions proportionate to GDP in 2010, and all the Annex I countries achieve the UK-proposal target after 2010, i.e. 61% and 77% reduction in 2050 and 2100, respectively. The analysis results also give the marginal cost of CO{sub 2} emission reduction in 2100 under the SRES B2 scenario with the emission trading at about 100, 120, and 290 $/tC for 650, 550, and 450 ppmv, respectively. However, the stabilization costs are more sensitive to themore » baseline; and CO{sub 2} capture and storage is important to reduce the stabilization cost; further, cost-effective technological options differ between developed and developing countries. 15 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Authors:
;  [1]
  1. Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) (Japan)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
20712336
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: International symposium on stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations: avoiding dangerous climate change, Exeter (United Kingdom), 1-3 Feb 2005; Related Information: In: Avoiding dangerous climate change, by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Tom Wigley; Gary Yohe (eds.), 406; 16.7 MB pages.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS; COST; CARBON DIOXIDE; ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION; STABILIZATION; MITIGATION; EMISSION; CAPTURE; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT; ENERGY SYSTEMS; ENERGY MODELS; DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; NUCLEAR POWER; FUEL SUBSTITUTION; RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES; ENERGY CONSERVATION

Citation Formats

Keigo Akimoto, and Toshimasa Tomoda. Costs and technology role for different levels of CO{sub 2} concentration stabilization. United States: N. p., 2006. Web.
Keigo Akimoto, & Toshimasa Tomoda. Costs and technology role for different levels of CO{sub 2} concentration stabilization. United States.
Keigo Akimoto, and Toshimasa Tomoda. Wed . "Costs and technology role for different levels of CO{sub 2} concentration stabilization". United States. doi:.
@article{osti_20712336,
title = {Costs and technology role for different levels of CO{sub 2} concentration stabilization},
author = {Keigo Akimoto and Toshimasa Tomoda},
abstractNote = {In order to evaluate the costs and technological options by region for various targets of CO{sub 2} emission reduction, a world energy systems model was developed that spans a century and comprises 77 regional divisions. Several case studies were conducted for this evaluation using IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenarios as baselines; and three CO{sub 2} emission stabilization targets of 650, 550 and 450 ppmv for each baseline. Further, in order to evaluate regional differences, an additional case study was conducted, reflecting the current world situation of reduction in emissions. With regard to the 550 ppmv stabilization case under the SRES B2 scenario, it was assumed that all Annex I countries except the US comply with the Kyoto target, the US achieves its target of emissions proportionate to GDP in 2010, and all the Annex I countries achieve the UK-proposal target after 2010, i.e. 61% and 77% reduction in 2050 and 2100, respectively. The analysis results also give the marginal cost of CO{sub 2} emission reduction in 2100 under the SRES B2 scenario with the emission trading at about 100, 120, and 290 $/tC for 650, 550, and 450 ppmv, respectively. However, the stabilization costs are more sensitive to the baseline; and CO{sub 2} capture and storage is important to reduce the stabilization cost; further, cost-effective technological options differ between developed and developing countries. 15 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2006},
month = {Wed Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2006}
}

Conference:
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  • One of the key points in the study of the problems of mitigation and adaptation to current climate changes is the question of the possibility of CO{sub 2} stabilization in the atmosphere. In this report the authors have used a number of the carbon cycle model calculations. These results were used for estimation of the uncertainties of the models atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration predictions for the next century.
  • Targets for reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions have been proposed in response to concerns over future global climate change with a focus on a 2010 target date. The authors develop emission scenarios over the 1990 to 2010 time-frame from available emissions data, and which encompass the range of proposed emission reductions. Emission reductions over this time frame could be viewed as steps towards mitigating impacts of climate change as well as steps towards the objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change which is, in part, the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations. Illustrative analyses of the stabilization of CO{sub 2}more » concentration have defined pathways that lead to constant CO{sub 2} concentrations over time ranges of greater than a century. While the prediction of specific impacts of climate change is highly uncertain, models have been developed to project changes in global-average temperature, sea level, and CO{sub 2} concentration; these quantities are often used as indicators in place of specific impacts of climate change. In this study, the authors summarize projections made with the Integrated Science Assessment Model of these quantities for the range of emission scenarios, and find that the reductions considered are not expected to effect near-term (by 2010) impacts. The authors also find no obvious correspondence between CO{sub 2} emissions reductions by 2010 and the stabilization levels eventually arrived at by previously defined pathways of CO{sub 2} concentration.« less
  • Photosynthetic C/sub 4/-acid metabolism in leaves of C/sub 3/-C/sub 4/ intermediate Flaveria species was examined by /sup 14/CO/sub 2/ pulse-/sup 12/CO/sub 2/ chase experiments conducted at external CO/sub 2/-levels approximating air and ..gamma... Analysis of the percent distribution of /sup 14/C after a 10-s pulse showed an enhanced labeling of malate and aspartate at ..gamma.. in the C/sub 3/-C/sub 4/ species. This stimulation of /sup 14/CO/sub 2/ fixation by PEP carboxylase ranged from 1.7-(F. floridana) to 3.6-fold (F. anomala). A /sup 12/CO/sub 2/-chase at ..gamma.. revealed a significant turnover of C/sub 4/ acids for only F. floridana. C/sub 4/-acid labelingmore » in C/sub 3/ and C/sub 4/ Flaveria species was relatively unresponsive to changes in pCO/sub 2/. These data imply that the C/sub 3/-C/sub 4/ intermediate Flaveria species with less advanced C/sub 4/ attributes have a greater capacity for increased CO/sub 2/ fixation via PEP carboxylase at ..gamma.. versus air. Thus, labeling of C/sub 3/-C/sub 4/ leaves at ..sigma.. may be an effective tool for assessing the degree of true C/sub 4/-photosynthesis as well as the potential mechanism involved in reducing photorespiration.« less
  • The crucifer M. arvensis is a species with photorespiratory characteristics intermediate between C/sub 3/ and C/sub 4/ plants. Although the precise mechanism promoting decreased photorespiration has yet to be elucidated, evidence to date disfavors participation of C/sub 4/ metabolism. In order to conclusively assess the possible contribution, if any, of limited C/sub 4/ metabolism to the reduction of photorespiration, detached leaves of M. arvensis and M. moricandioides (C/sub 3/) were labeled with /sup 14/CO/sub 2/. When M. arvensis was illuminated and pulsed for 10 s the amount of label in malate increased from 4.5% of total soluble dpm fixed atmore » 21% O/sub 2/ and 340 ..mu..l/l CO/sub 2/ to 10.3% at 20 ..mu..l/l. A two-fold increase was also evident for aspartate (from 2.9% to 6.5%). The C/sub 3/ Moricandia species failed to show a similar response to decreased CO/sub 2/. The physiological significance of the increase in C/sub 4/ acid-labeling which occurred in the intermediate species will be investigated by pulse-chase analyses of C/sub 4/ acids and glycine. Similar data for Panicum milioides (C/sub 3/-C/sub 4/) will also be presented.« less
  • Dark respiration (R[sub d], CO[sub 2] efflux) was studied in Scirpus olneyi (C[sub 3]) and Spartina patens (C[sub 4]) grown in open top chambers and exposed to normal ambient or elevated CO[sub 2] (=normal ambient +340 ppm). R[sub d] measured on detached shoots of both species at different CO[sub 2] concentrations (C[sub a]) decreased reversibly as c[sub a] increased. The C[sub a] during growth had a long-term effect on the C[sub 3]sedges, Scirpus olneyi: R[sub d] measured at constant C[sub a] was higher in plants grown in elevated CO[sub 2] than in those grown in normal ambient CO[sub 2] onlymore » during the first 24 days of growth and during the remainder of the season it was the same or less.« less