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Title: Model for the Distribution of Aftershock Interoccurrence Times

Abstract

In this work the distribution of interoccurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of interoccurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis.

Authors:
 [1];  [2]; ;  [1];  [3]
  1. Center for Computational Science and Engineering, University of California, Davis, California 95616 (United States)
  2. (United States)
  3. Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, California 95616 (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
20699594
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Physical Review Letters; Journal Volume: 95; Journal Issue: 21; Other Information: DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.218501; (c) 2005 The American Physical Society; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS; 36 MATERIALS SCIENCE; AFTERSHOCKS; CALIFORNIA; DISTRIBUTION; EARTHQUAKES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SEISMOLOGY; TIME DEPENDENCE

Citation Formats

Shcherbakov, Robert, Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, California 95616, Yakovlev, Gleb, Rundle, John B., and Turcotte, Donald L.. Model for the Distribution of Aftershock Interoccurrence Times. United States: N. p., 2005. Web. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.218501.
Shcherbakov, Robert, Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, California 95616, Yakovlev, Gleb, Rundle, John B., & Turcotte, Donald L.. Model for the Distribution of Aftershock Interoccurrence Times. United States. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.218501.
Shcherbakov, Robert, Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, California 95616, Yakovlev, Gleb, Rundle, John B., and Turcotte, Donald L.. Fri . "Model for the Distribution of Aftershock Interoccurrence Times". United States. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.218501.
@article{osti_20699594,
title = {Model for the Distribution of Aftershock Interoccurrence Times},
author = {Shcherbakov, Robert and Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, California 95616 and Yakovlev, Gleb and Rundle, John B. and Turcotte, Donald L.},
abstractNote = {In this work the distribution of interoccurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of interoccurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis.},
doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.218501},
journal = {Physical Review Letters},
number = 21,
volume = 95,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Nov 18 00:00:00 EST 2005},
month = {Fri Nov 18 00:00:00 EST 2005}
}
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  • An estimate of aftershock activity due to a theoretical underground nuclear explosion is produced using an aftershock rate model. The model is developed with data from the Nevada National Security Site, formerly known as the Nevada Test Site, and the Semipalatinsk Test Site, which we take to represent soft-rock and hard-rock testing environments, respectively. Estimates of expected magnitude and number of aftershocks are calculated using the models for different testing and inspection scenarios. These estimates can help inform the Seismic Aftershock Monitoring System (SAMS) deployment in a potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty On-Site Inspection (OSI), by giving the OSI teammore » a probabilistic assessment of potential aftershocks in the Inspection Area (IA). The aftershock assessment, combined with an estimate of the background seismicity in the IA and an empirically derived map of threshold magnitude for the SAMS network, could aid the OSI team in reporting. Here, we apply the hard-rock model to a M5 event and combine it with the very sensitive detection threshold for OSI sensors to show that tens of events per day are expected up to a month after an explosion measured several kilometers away.« less
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