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Title: Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment: lessons from a case study

Abstract

For an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to effectively contribute to decision-making, it must include one crucial step: the estimation of the uncertainty factors affecting the impact evaluation and of their effect on the evaluation results. Knowledge of the uncertainties better orients the strategy of the decision-makers and underlines the most critical data or methodological steps of the procedure. Accounting for uncertainty factors is particularly relevant when dealing with ecological impacts, whose forecasts are typically affected by a high degree of simplification. By means of a case study dealing with the evaluation of road alternatives, this paper explores and discusses the main uncertainties that are related to the typical stages of a biodiversity impact assessment: uncertainty in the data that are used, in the methodologies that are applied, and in the value judgments provided by the experts. Subsequently, the effects of such uncertainty factors are tracked back to the result of the evaluation, i.e., to the relative performance of the project alternatives under consideration. This allows to test the sensitivity of the results, and consequently to provide a more informative ranking of the alternatives. The papers concludes by discussing the added-value for decision-making provided by uncertainty analysis within EIA.

Authors:
; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
20650588
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Impact Assessment Review
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 23; Journal Issue: 4; Other Information: DOI: 10.1016/S0195-9255(03)00045-3; PII: S0195925503000453; Copyright (c) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); Journal ID: ISSN 0195-9255
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; DECISION MAKING; ECOSYSTEMS; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENTS; EVALUATION; PERFORMANCE; SENSITIVITY; SPECIES DIVERSITY

Citation Formats

Geneletti, D, Beinat, E, Chung, C F, Fabbri, A G, and Scholten, H J. Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment: lessons from a case study. United States: N. p., 2003. Web. doi:10.1016/S0195-9255(03)00045-3.
Geneletti, D, Beinat, E, Chung, C F, Fabbri, A G, & Scholten, H J. Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment: lessons from a case study. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0195-9255(03)00045-3
Geneletti, D, Beinat, E, Chung, C F, Fabbri, A G, and Scholten, H J. 2003. "Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment: lessons from a case study". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0195-9255(03)00045-3.
@article{osti_20650588,
title = {Accounting for uncertainty factors in biodiversity impact assessment: lessons from a case study},
author = {Geneletti, D and Beinat, E and Chung, C F and Fabbri, A G and Scholten, H J},
abstractNote = {For an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to effectively contribute to decision-making, it must include one crucial step: the estimation of the uncertainty factors affecting the impact evaluation and of their effect on the evaluation results. Knowledge of the uncertainties better orients the strategy of the decision-makers and underlines the most critical data or methodological steps of the procedure. Accounting for uncertainty factors is particularly relevant when dealing with ecological impacts, whose forecasts are typically affected by a high degree of simplification. By means of a case study dealing with the evaluation of road alternatives, this paper explores and discusses the main uncertainties that are related to the typical stages of a biodiversity impact assessment: uncertainty in the data that are used, in the methodologies that are applied, and in the value judgments provided by the experts. Subsequently, the effects of such uncertainty factors are tracked back to the result of the evaluation, i.e., to the relative performance of the project alternatives under consideration. This allows to test the sensitivity of the results, and consequently to provide a more informative ranking of the alternatives. The papers concludes by discussing the added-value for decision-making provided by uncertainty analysis within EIA.},
doi = {10.1016/S0195-9255(03)00045-3},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/20650588}, journal = {Environmental Impact Assessment Review},
issn = {0195-9255},
number = 4,
volume = 23,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2003},
month = {Tue Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2003}
}