Title: Economic carbon cycle feedbacks may offset additional warming from natural feedbacks

Abstract

As the Earth warms, carbon sinks on land and in the ocean will weaken, thereby increasing the rate of warming. Although natural mechanisms contributing to this positive climate–carbon feedback have been evaluated using Earth system models, analogous feedbacks involving human activities have not been systematically quantified. Here we conceptualize and estimate the magnitude of several economic mechanisms that generate a carbon–climate feedback, using the Kaya identity to separate a net economic feedback into components associated with population, GDP, heating and cooling, and the carbon intensity of energy production and transportation. We find that climate-driven decreases in economic activity (GDP) may in turn decrease human energy use and thus fossil fuel CO ₂ emissions. In a high radiative forcing scenario, such decreases in economic activity reduce fossil fuel emissions by 13% this century, lowering atmospheric CO ₂ by over 100 ppm in 2100. The natural carbon–climate feedback, in contrast, increases atmospheric CO ₂ over this period by a similar amount, and thus, the net effect including both feedbacks is nearly zero. Our work highlights the importance of improving the representation of climate–economic feedbacks in scenarios of future change. Although the effects of climate warming on the economy may offset weakening landmore » and ocean carbon sinks, a loss of economic productivity will have high societal costs, potentially increasing wealth inequity and limiting resources available for effective adaptation.« less

Authors:

Woodard, Dawn L. ^[1]; Davis, Steven J.  ^[2];

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• Search OSTI.GOV for ORCID "0000-0002-9338-0844"
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Randerson, James T.  ^[1]

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• Search OSTI.GOV for ORCID "0000-0001-6559-7387"
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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697,
2. Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697,, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697

Publication Date:

Mon Dec 17 00:00:00 EST 2018

Research Org.:

Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation

OSTI Identifier:

1487291

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1904010

Grant/Contract Number:  

RUBISCO SFA; DGE-1321846; GBMF 3269

Resource Type:

Journal Article: Published Article

Journal Name:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Volume: 116 Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; carbon cycle feedbacks; climate change; economic damages; integrated assessment models; fossil fuels