Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

Zakeri, Behnam; Paulavets, Katsia; Barreto-Gomez, Leonardo; Echeverri, Luis Gomez; Pachauri, Shonali; Boza-Kiss, Benigna; Zimm, Caroline; Rogelj, Joeri; Creutzig, Felix; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Victor, David G.; Bazilian, Morgan D.; Fritz, Steffen; Gielen, Dolf; McCollum, David L.; Srivastava, Leena; Hunt, Julian D.; Pouya, Shaheen

doi:10.3390/en15176114

Title: Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

Journal Article · Tue Aug 23 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Energies

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/en15176114· OSTI ID:1883697

^[1]; Paulavets, Katsia ^[2]; Barreto-Gomez, Leonardo ^[3]; Echeverri, Luis Gomez ^[1];

^[1];

^[1]; Rogelj, Joeri ^[4];

^[5]; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana ^[6]; Victor, David G. ^[7]; Bazilian, Morgan D. ^[8]; Fritz, Steffen ^[1];

^[9];

^[1]; Srivastava, Leena ^[1];

^[1]; Pouya, Shaheen ^[10]

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
International Science Council (ISC), Paris (France)
Austrian Energy Agency (AEA), Vienna (Austria)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
Technical University of Berlin (Germany)
Central European University, Vienna (Austria)
University of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)
IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre, Bonn (Germany)
Auburn University, AL (United States)

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); International Science Council (ISC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1883697

Journal Information:: Energies, Vol. 15, Issue 17; ISSN 1996-1073

Publisher:: MDPICopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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