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Local-thermal-gradient and large-scale-circulation impacts on turbine-height wind speed forecasting over the Columbia River Basin

Journal Article · · Wind Energy Science (Online)
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
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We investigate the sensitivity of turbine-height wind speed forecast to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge (CRG) and Columbia River Basin (CRB) for two typical weather phenomena, i.e., local-thermal-gradient-induced marine air intrusion and a cold frontal passage. Four types of turbine-height wind forecast anomalies and their associated IC uncertainties related to local thermal gradients and large-scale circulations are identified using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. The four SOM types are categorized into two patterns, each accounting for half of the ensemble members. The first pattern corresponds to IC uncertainties that alter the wind forecast through a modulating weather system, which produces the strongest wind anomalies in the CRG and CRB. In the second pattern, the moderate uncertainties in local thermal gradient and large-scale circulation jointly contribute to wind forecast anomaly. We analyze the cross section of wind and temperature anomalies through the gorge to explore the evolution of vertical features of each SOM type. The turbine-height wind anomalies induced by large-scale IC uncertainties are more concentrated near the front. In contrast, turbine-height wind anomalies induced by the local IC thermal uncertainties are found above the surface thermal anomalies. Moreover, the wind forecast accuracy in the CRG and CRB is limited by IC uncertainties in a few specific regions, e.g., the 2 m temperature within the basin and large-scale circulation over the northeast Pacific around 140°W.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office; USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2
OSTI ID:
1841033
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1854908
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-163862
Journal Information:
Wind Energy Science (Online), Vol. 7, Issue 1; ISSN 2366-7451
Publisher:
Copernicus PublicationsCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D01) dataset January 2022
Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D02) dataset January 2022

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Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Cold-front (D01)
Dataset · Wed Sep 21 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · OSTI ID:1819817
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Related Subjects

17 WIND ENERGY
initial conditions
forecast error
self-organzing map
turbine-height wind speed
weather research and forecasting model