Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Jagermeyr, Jonas; Muller, Christoph; Ruane, Alex C.; Elliott, Joshua; Balkovic, Juraj; Castillo, Oscar; Faye, Babacar; Foster, Ian; Folberth, Christian; Franke, James A.

doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y

Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Journal Article · 01 November 2021 · Nature Food

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y· OSTI ID:1839949

Jagermeyr, Jonas; Muller, Christoph; Ruane, Alex C.; Elliott, Joshua; Balkovic, Juraj; Castillo, Oscar; Faye, Babacar; Foster, Ian; Folberth, Christian; Franke, James A.

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

Research Organization:: Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); European Research Council (ERC); National Science Foundation (NSF); German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) - NanoMatFutur

DOE Contract Number:: AC02-06CH11357

OSTI ID:: 1839949

Journal Information:: Nature Food, Vol. 2

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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