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Title: Climate change and agriculture in developing countries

Abstract

Most analysts agree that the poorest countries` agricultures are likely to be the most vulnerable to-and least capable of adapting to-climate change or other environmental disruptions. Research has only recently begun to assess what the likely impacts of climate change on developing countries` agricultures may be, how these agricultures might adapt to climate change, and how policies might be designed to facilitate adaptation. This paper begins with a discussion of what researchers currently believe the impacts of climate change could be on developing country agriculture, principally tropical agriculture. Climate changes are expected to occur from thirty to more than one hundred years in the future. These time horizons mean that predictions of the key factors determining impacts and adaptation-population, income, institutions, and technology-are probably as uncertain as predictions of climate change itself. Rates of productivity growth and technological adaptation will be critical to future food supplies, with or without climate change. Continuation of the trend of the past forty years could make so abundant that climate change effects would be inconsequential, but lower rates of growth could result in population growth outstripping food supplies. The second section of this paper addresses the critical issue of predicting the long-term trend inmore » productivity by building on the substantial knowledge we have about the economic factors determining agricultural innovation and adaptation. Considering the time horizons and uncertainties involved in climate change, the wise policy strategy is to pursue investments that are economically justified, whether or not climate change occurs. A better understanding of managed ecosystems would improve our understanding of agricultural sustainability as well as climate change impacts and adaptation. The third section of this paper outlines an economic approach to modeling managed ecosystems. 21 refs.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
183556
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 77; Journal Issue: 3; Other Information: PBD: Aug 1995
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
56 BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE, APPLIED STUDIES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY; CLIMATIC CHANGE; BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS; SOCIAL IMPACT; ECONOMIC IMPACT; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; AGRICULTURE; PRODUCTIVITY

Citation Formats

Antle, J M. Climate change and agriculture in developing countries. United States: N. p., 1995. Web. doi:10.2307/1243244.
Antle, J M. Climate change and agriculture in developing countries. United States. https://doi.org/10.2307/1243244
Antle, J M. Tue . "Climate change and agriculture in developing countries". United States. https://doi.org/10.2307/1243244.
@article{osti_183556,
title = {Climate change and agriculture in developing countries},
author = {Antle, J M},
abstractNote = {Most analysts agree that the poorest countries` agricultures are likely to be the most vulnerable to-and least capable of adapting to-climate change or other environmental disruptions. Research has only recently begun to assess what the likely impacts of climate change on developing countries` agricultures may be, how these agricultures might adapt to climate change, and how policies might be designed to facilitate adaptation. This paper begins with a discussion of what researchers currently believe the impacts of climate change could be on developing country agriculture, principally tropical agriculture. Climate changes are expected to occur from thirty to more than one hundred years in the future. These time horizons mean that predictions of the key factors determining impacts and adaptation-population, income, institutions, and technology-are probably as uncertain as predictions of climate change itself. Rates of productivity growth and technological adaptation will be critical to future food supplies, with or without climate change. Continuation of the trend of the past forty years could make so abundant that climate change effects would be inconsequential, but lower rates of growth could result in population growth outstripping food supplies. The second section of this paper addresses the critical issue of predicting the long-term trend in productivity by building on the substantial knowledge we have about the economic factors determining agricultural innovation and adaptation. Considering the time horizons and uncertainties involved in climate change, the wise policy strategy is to pursue investments that are economically justified, whether or not climate change occurs. A better understanding of managed ecosystems would improve our understanding of agricultural sustainability as well as climate change impacts and adaptation. The third section of this paper outlines an economic approach to modeling managed ecosystems. 21 refs.},
doi = {10.2307/1243244},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/183556}, journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics},
number = 3,
volume = 77,
place = {United States},
year = {1995},
month = {8}
}