Integrated modeling analysis of estuarine responses to extreme hydrological events and sea-level rise

Wu, Wenting; Yang, Zhaoqing; Zhang, Xuejun; Zhou, Yunxuan; Tian, Bo; Tang, Qiuhong

doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2021.107555

Integrated modeling analysis of estuarine responses to extreme hydrological events and sea-level rise

Journal Article · 31 October 2021 · Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2021.107555· OSTI ID:1821705

Wu, Wenting ^[1]; ^[2]; Zhang, Xuejun ^[3]; Zhou, Yunxuan ^[1]; Tian, Bo ^[1]; Tang, Qiuhong ^[4]

East China Normal University
BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research

Estuaries are vulnerable to climate change and are particularly sensitive to extreme river discharge (RD) and sea-level rise (SLR). To understand the effects of extreme RD and SLR on estuaries, an integrated modeling approach is adopted to simulate hydrodynamic changes in the Yangtze River Estuary. Model results showed that SLR will intensify the estuarine hydrodynamics in water level, currents, and salinity. Water level, current speed, and salinity increased linearly with the magnitude of SLR. The hydrological model suggested a lower RD in the future. This will increase the saltwater intrusion, which will be more severe during the lower RD and drought extreme hydrological event (EHE) conditions. Model results also suggested that the saltwater intrusion is more sensitive to RD than SLR. In addition, the interplay between the RD and SLR will exacerbate the impacts of coastal oceans on estuarine hydrodynamics, especially during extremely low RD conditions. Moreover, the decrease of RD and deepening of the channel due to human activities will also amplify the effects of SLR on the Estuary, increasing the risk of coastal disasters.

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

DOE Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1821705

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-165588

Journal Information:: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 261

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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