ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Seroussi, Hélène; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Antony J.; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cécile; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Barthel, Alice; Calov, Reinhard; Cullather, Richard; Dumas, Christophe; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Gladstone, Rupert; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Greve, Ralf; Hattermann, Tore; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Kleiner, Thomas; Larour, Eric; Leguy, Gunter R.; Lowry, Daniel P.; Little, Chistopher M.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pattyn, Frank; Pelle, Tyler; Price, Stephen F.; Quiquet, Aurélien; Reese, Ronja; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Shepherd, Andrew; Simon, Erika; Smith, Robin S.; Straneo, Fiammetta; Sun, Sainan; Trusel, Luke D.; Van Breedam, Jonas; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Zhao, Chen; Zhang, Tong; Zwinger, Thomas

doi:10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020

Title: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Journal Article · Thu Sep 17 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · The Cryosphere (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020· OSTI ID:1664437

;

; Lipscomb, William H.;

;

; Calov, Reinhard; Cullather, Richard; Dumas, Christophe;

;

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC). Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); Netherlands Earth System Science Centre; Academy of Finland; Australian Research Council; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; European Commission (EC); Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS); New Zealand Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); German Research Foundation (DFG); Norwegian Research Council

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001; 024.002.001; 286587; 322430; SR140300001; ANR-15-CE01-0005-01; 820575; JP16H02224; JP17H06104; JP17H06323; RTVU1705; 1739031; 1603799; 1644277; 1852977; 1916566; NNX17AG65G; NNX17AI03G; WI4556/2-1; WI4556/3-1; 280727; 295075

OSTI ID:: 1664437

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1699490

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-20-20383

Journal Information:: The Cryosphere (Online), Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online) Vol. 14 Journal Issue: 9; ISSN 1994-0424

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

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