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Title: Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

Abstract

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes inmore » natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.« less

Authors:
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Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Strategic Programs (EE-SP)
OSTI Identifier:
1660122
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-73336
MainId:6124;UUID:33975a23-2c35-e911-9c1c-ac162d87dfe5;MainAdminID:15132
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
45 EE - Strategic Programs, Policy and Analysis Office (EE-61P); electrification; power systems modeling; capacity expansion model; ReEDS

Citation Formats

Mai, Trieu, Sun, Yinong, Jadun, Paige, Murphy, Caitlin, Logan, Jeffrey, Muratori, Matteo, and Nelson, Brent. Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.2172/1660122.
Mai, Trieu, Sun, Yinong, Jadun, Paige, Murphy, Caitlin, Logan, Jeffrey, Muratori, Matteo, & Nelson, Brent. Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1660122
Mai, Trieu, Sun, Yinong, Jadun, Paige, Murphy, Caitlin, Logan, Jeffrey, Muratori, Matteo, and Nelson, Brent. Tue . "Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1660122. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1660122.
@article{osti_1660122,
title = {Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification},
author = {Mai, Trieu and Sun, Yinong and Jadun, Paige and Murphy, Caitlin and Logan, Jeffrey and Muratori, Matteo and Nelson, Brent},
abstractNote = {By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.},
doi = {10.2172/1660122},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1660122}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {7}
}