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Title: Electric Vehicle Adoption in Illinois

Abstract

At the request of ComEd, this study analyzed a scenario in which plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are adopted at an accelerated rate in Illinois. Postulating a goal that 15% of on-road vehicles would be PEVs by 2032, we examined successful PEV adoption policies implemented elsewhere in the United States and abroad, characterized trajectories of new PEV sales and turnover of the existing vehicle fleet, projected PEV utilization and charging patterns, and computed resulting effects on energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and charging load. Based on the scale and scope of the goal, the body of evidence from the academic literature, and the dynamics of vehicle sales and replacement, we conclude that it will take a combination of strong incentives to achieve 15% PEV penetration in Illinois. First, the equivalent monetized value of incentives to vehicle purchasers will need to be a significant fraction of the price of the vehicle in order to induce a large fraction of consumers to purchase a PEV instead of a comparable conventional vehicle. Second, incentives and other policies need to be in place for several years to make a significant impact on the on-road stock. Third, federal, state, and local governments, automakers, dealerships, and non-profitmore » organizations need to take concerted action to promote the adoption of PEVs. No single agent can implement policies that are likely to promote sufficient PEV adoption to accomplish the goal of 15% on-road penetration. Markets for new vehicles are very heterogeneous. Different types and combinations of incentives are necessary, because different barriers affect different purchasers. In addition to policy, advancements in battery technology, changes in consumer behavior and economic factors play important roles in PEV adoption. Improvements in battery technology that significantly reduce vehicle cost and increase range could make PEVs more competitive within the existing market. The availability of a diverse set of PEVs of different size classes, styles, and capabilities could attract buyers in multiple market segments. Public charging could attract people who cannot charge conveniently at home (e.g., residents of multi-unit dwellings) or during long-distance travel. In addition to changes in the relative affordability of PEVs vis a conventional vehicles, economic signals such as persistently high oil prices could make PEVs more attractive. However, even significant increases in the attractiveness of PEVs can be offset by advances in competing conventional and new powertrain technologies (e.g., improved combustion engines and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles). Because there are inherent uncertainties in technology development, market projections, and the potential for implementing incentives, we have examined recent history as a guide to both policy options and realistic outcomes. For the latter, we highlight two cases – California and its Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and Norway – to illustrate that it takes significant funding and incentives over a long period of time to substantially increase PEV adoption. California has been a leader in the adoption of PEVs; it has several financial and non-financial incentives in place at the state level. After aggressively promoting PEVs for over 10 years, EVs now account for almost 8% of new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) sold within the state. California has adopted a broad set of policies, actions, and regulations, including strongly incentivizing installation of residential and public chargers (there are now more than 25,000 ports in over 6,000 locations), and now has more PEV models available to consumers than any other state. As early as 1990, California implemented a ZEV mandate, which required diverse model availability in the state. Internationally, Norway is the world leader in per-capita PEV ownership, with about 56 PEVs per 1,000 people in 2018 (IEA 2020; EAFO 2018), and PEVs accounted for over 50% of total new passenger veh« less

Authors:
; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Exelon Generation
OSTI Identifier:
1658594
Report Number(s):
ANL-20/38
161819
DOE Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
GHG emissions; electric vehicles

Citation Formats

Zhou, Yan, Mintz, Marianne, Stephens, Thomas, Aeschliman, Spencer, and Macal, Charles. Electric Vehicle Adoption in Illinois. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.2172/1658594.
Zhou, Yan, Mintz, Marianne, Stephens, Thomas, Aeschliman, Spencer, & Macal, Charles. Electric Vehicle Adoption in Illinois. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1658594
Zhou, Yan, Mintz, Marianne, Stephens, Thomas, Aeschliman, Spencer, and Macal, Charles. Wed . "Electric Vehicle Adoption in Illinois". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1658594. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1658594.
@article{osti_1658594,
title = {Electric Vehicle Adoption in Illinois},
author = {Zhou, Yan and Mintz, Marianne and Stephens, Thomas and Aeschliman, Spencer and Macal, Charles},
abstractNote = {At the request of ComEd, this study analyzed a scenario in which plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are adopted at an accelerated rate in Illinois. Postulating a goal that 15% of on-road vehicles would be PEVs by 2032, we examined successful PEV adoption policies implemented elsewhere in the United States and abroad, characterized trajectories of new PEV sales and turnover of the existing vehicle fleet, projected PEV utilization and charging patterns, and computed resulting effects on energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and charging load. Based on the scale and scope of the goal, the body of evidence from the academic literature, and the dynamics of vehicle sales and replacement, we conclude that it will take a combination of strong incentives to achieve 15% PEV penetration in Illinois. First, the equivalent monetized value of incentives to vehicle purchasers will need to be a significant fraction of the price of the vehicle in order to induce a large fraction of consumers to purchase a PEV instead of a comparable conventional vehicle. Second, incentives and other policies need to be in place for several years to make a significant impact on the on-road stock. Third, federal, state, and local governments, automakers, dealerships, and non-profit organizations need to take concerted action to promote the adoption of PEVs. No single agent can implement policies that are likely to promote sufficient PEV adoption to accomplish the goal of 15% on-road penetration. Markets for new vehicles are very heterogeneous. Different types and combinations of incentives are necessary, because different barriers affect different purchasers. In addition to policy, advancements in battery technology, changes in consumer behavior and economic factors play important roles in PEV adoption. Improvements in battery technology that significantly reduce vehicle cost and increase range could make PEVs more competitive within the existing market. The availability of a diverse set of PEVs of different size classes, styles, and capabilities could attract buyers in multiple market segments. Public charging could attract people who cannot charge conveniently at home (e.g., residents of multi-unit dwellings) or during long-distance travel. In addition to changes in the relative affordability of PEVs vis a conventional vehicles, economic signals such as persistently high oil prices could make PEVs more attractive. However, even significant increases in the attractiveness of PEVs can be offset by advances in competing conventional and new powertrain technologies (e.g., improved combustion engines and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles). Because there are inherent uncertainties in technology development, market projections, and the potential for implementing incentives, we have examined recent history as a guide to both policy options and realistic outcomes. For the latter, we highlight two cases – California and its Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and Norway – to illustrate that it takes significant funding and incentives over a long period of time to substantially increase PEV adoption. California has been a leader in the adoption of PEVs; it has several financial and non-financial incentives in place at the state level. After aggressively promoting PEVs for over 10 years, EVs now account for almost 8% of new light-duty vehicles (LDVs) sold within the state. California has adopted a broad set of policies, actions, and regulations, including strongly incentivizing installation of residential and public chargers (there are now more than 25,000 ports in over 6,000 locations), and now has more PEV models available to consumers than any other state. As early as 1990, California implemented a ZEV mandate, which required diverse model availability in the state. Internationally, Norway is the world leader in per-capita PEV ownership, with about 56 PEVs per 1,000 people in 2018 (IEA 2020; EAFO 2018), and PEVs accounted for over 50% of total new passenger veh},
doi = {10.2172/1658594},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1658594}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {7}
}