skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet

Abstract

In this study, a framework is proposed for minimizing the societal cost of replacing gas-powered household passenger cars with battery electric ones (BEVs). The societal cost consists of operational costs of heterogeneous driving patterns' cars, the government investments for charging deployment, and monetized environmental externalities. The optimization framework determines the timeframe needed for conventional vehicles to be replaced with BEVs. It also determines the BEVs driving range during the planning timeframe, as well as the density of public chargers deployed on a linear transportation network over time. We leverage datasets that represent U.S. household driving patterns, as well as the automobile and the energy markets, to apply the model. Results indicate that it takes 8 years for 80% of our conventional vehicle sample to be replaced with electric vehicles, under the base case scenario. The socially optimal all-electric driving range is 204 miles, with chargers placed every 172 miles on a linear corridor. All of the public chargers should be deployed at the beginning of the planning horizon to achieve greater savings over the years. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the timeframe for the socially optimal conversion of 80% of the sample varies from 6 to 12 years. The optimal decisionmore » variables are sensitive to battery pack and vehicle body cost, gasoline cost, the discount rate, and conventional vehicles' fuel economy. In conclusion, faster conventional vehicle replacement is achieved when the gasoline cost increases, electricity cost decreases, and battery packs become cheaper over the years.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4]
  1. Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil and Coastal Engineering; National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center
  2. Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil and Coastal Engineering; Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). National Transportation Research Center (NTRC)
  4. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Dept. of Industrial Engineering
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Transportation Office. Vehicle Technologies Office
OSTI Identifier:
1658021
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1371525
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5400-68298
Journal ID: ISSN 1556-8318
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
International Journal of Sustainable Transportation
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 1556-8318
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
25 ENERGY STORAGE; 33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; vehicle replacement; battery electric vehicles (BEVs); internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs); charging density; all-electric driving range; 30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION

Citation Formats

Kontou, Eleftheria, Yin, Yafeng, Lin, Zhenhong, and He, Fang. Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1080/15568318.2017.1313341.
Kontou, Eleftheria, Yin, Yafeng, Lin, Zhenhong, & He, Fang. Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet. United States. https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2017.1313341
Kontou, Eleftheria, Yin, Yafeng, Lin, Zhenhong, and He, Fang. Wed . "Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet". United States. https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2017.1313341. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1658021.
@article{osti_1658021,
title = {Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet},
author = {Kontou, Eleftheria and Yin, Yafeng and Lin, Zhenhong and He, Fang},
abstractNote = {In this study, a framework is proposed for minimizing the societal cost of replacing gas-powered household passenger cars with battery electric ones (BEVs). The societal cost consists of operational costs of heterogeneous driving patterns' cars, the government investments for charging deployment, and monetized environmental externalities. The optimization framework determines the timeframe needed for conventional vehicles to be replaced with BEVs. It also determines the BEVs driving range during the planning timeframe, as well as the density of public chargers deployed on a linear transportation network over time. We leverage datasets that represent U.S. household driving patterns, as well as the automobile and the energy markets, to apply the model. Results indicate that it takes 8 years for 80% of our conventional vehicle sample to be replaced with electric vehicles, under the base case scenario. The socially optimal all-electric driving range is 204 miles, with chargers placed every 172 miles on a linear corridor. All of the public chargers should be deployed at the beginning of the planning horizon to achieve greater savings over the years. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the timeframe for the socially optimal conversion of 80% of the sample varies from 6 to 12 years. The optimal decision variables are sensitive to battery pack and vehicle body cost, gasoline cost, the discount rate, and conventional vehicles' fuel economy. In conclusion, faster conventional vehicle replacement is achieved when the gasoline cost increases, electricity cost decreases, and battery packs become cheaper over the years.},
doi = {10.1080/15568318.2017.1313341},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1658021}, journal = {International Journal of Sustainable Transportation},
issn = {1556-8318},
number = 10,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {4}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle: A survey of early impressions in large US cites
journal, January 2013


An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
journal, June 2011


Deploying public charging stations for electric vehicles on urban road networks
journal, November 2015


Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers
journal, November 2014


Valuation of plug-in vehicle life-cycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits
journal, September 2011


Developing green fleet management strategies: Repair/retrofit/replacement decisions under environmental regulation
journal, October 2012


Increasing electric vehicle policy efficiency and effectiveness by reducing mainstream market bias
journal, February 2014


Assessing demand by urban consumers for plug-in electric vehicles under future cost and technological scenarios
journal, December 2015


Estimation of Energy Use by Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Validating Gamma Distribution for Representing Random Daily Driving Distance
journal, January 2012

  • Lin, Zhenhong; Dong, Jing; Liu, Changzheng
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2287, Issue 1
  • https://doi.org/10.3141/2287-05

A vehicle replacement policy for motor carriers in an unsteady economy
journal, June 2005


US residential charging potential for electric vehicles
journal, December 2013


Analyzing the transition to electric drive vehicles in the U.S.
journal, April 2014


Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas
journal, October 2011


Optimization of incentive polices for plug-in electric vehicles
journal, February 2016


A statistical approach to estimating acceptance of electric vehicles and electrification of personal transportation
journal, January 2013


Socially optimal electric driving range of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
journal, August 2015


Electric vehicle diffusion in the Portuguese automobile market
journal, July 2014


Economic and Environmental Optimization of Vehicle Fleets: Impact of Policy, Market, Utilization, and Technological Factors
journal, January 2011

  • Figliozzi, Miguel A.; Boudart, Jesse A.; Feng, Wei
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2252, Issue 1
  • https://doi.org/10.3141/2252-01

CONOPT—A Large-Scale GRG Code
journal, May 1994


Optimal deployment of public charging stations for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
journal, January 2013


Estimating daily vehicle usage distributions and the implications for limited-range vehicles
journal, August 1985


Policy measures to promote electric mobility – A global perspective
journal, December 2015


    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Sustainability Assessment of Fuel Cell Buses in Public Transport
    journal, May 2018