Cooperative Counterproliferation with Allies and Rivals: Nuclear Negotiations with South Korea and Iran
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Nuclear reversal is an important policy goal of the United States and its partners in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. While significant work has examined the effects of common coercive strategies, little analysis has yet explored the effects of possible cooperative strategies. This project therefore explains which cooperative counterproliferation strategies are most successful, and how these strategies differ between engagement with allies and rival states. To that end, it asks what cooperative engagement strategies exist, and under what conditions do they successfully induce nuclear reversal in proliferating states? Through this, it seeks to provide better clarity on why some counterproliferation engagement succeeds in halting or even reversing nuclear proliferation while others fail, and the conditions under which these outcomes occur. Based on historical analysis of the negotiations with South Korea and Iran, this project concludes that strategies that promise ongoing cooperation rather than one-time rewards have been most successful, but that the credibility of such commitments differ depending on the relationship of the negotiating states. Specifically, both allied and rival partners have use nuclear cooperation agreements, security guarantees, and long-term economic deals to successfully negotiate counterproliferation agreements, however allied partners made credible commitments based on their history of mutual trust, while rival states used costly signals of assurance to credibly commit to their agreements.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344
- OSTI ID:
- 1635764
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-TR-793597; 954010; TRN: US2201420
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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