Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape

Journal Article · Tue Nov 12 00:00:00 EST 2019 · PeerJ

DOI:https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7892· OSTI ID:1630441

Siegel, Jared E. ^[1]; Volk, Carol J. ^[2]

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1. Ocean Associates, under contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, United States of America, South Fork Research, Inc, North Bend, WA, United States of America
2. South Fork Research, Inc, North Bend, WA, United States of America

Spatial and temporal patterns in stream temperature are primary factors determining species composition, diversity and productivity in stream ecosystems. The availability of spatially and temporally continuous estimates of stream temperature would improve the ability of biologists to fully explore the effects of stream temperature on biota. Most statistical stream temperature modeling techniques are limited in their ability to account for the influence of variables changing across spatial and temporal gradients. We identified and described important interactions between climate and spatial variables that approximate mechanistic controls on spatiotemporal patterns in stream temperature. With identified relationships we formed models to generate reach-scale basin-wide spatially and temporally continuous predictions of daily mean stream temperature in four Columbia River tributaries watersheds of the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models were validated with a testing dataset composed of completely distinct sites and measurements from different years. While some patterns in residuals remained, testing dataset predictions of selected models demonstrated high accuracy and precision (averaged RMSE for each watershed ranged from 0.85–1.54 °C) and was only 17% higher on average than training dataset prediction error. Aggregating daily predictions to monthly predictions of mean stream temperature reduced prediction error by an average of 23%. The accuracy of predictions was largely consistent across diverse climate years, demonstrating the ability of the models to capture the influences of interannual climatic variability and extend predictions to timeframes with limited temperature logger data. Results suggest that the inclusion of a range of interactions between spatial and climatic variables can approximate dynamic mechanistic controls on stream temperatures.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 1630441
• Journal Information: PeerJ, Journal Name: PeerJ Vol. 7; ISSN 2167-8359
• Publisher: PeerJ
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English