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Title: Changes in Wood Biomass and Crop Yields in Response to Projected CO 2, O 3, Nitrogen Deposition, and Climate

Abstract

As the world's population increases, so will the demand for food and timber resources. Though carbon dioxide (CO 2) fertilization and, to a lesser extent, nitrogen (N) deposition are expected to increase future resource production, changes in ozone (O 3) and climate have the potential to decrease production due to increased phytotoxic damage, drought, and heat stress. To determine how crop and timber production may change in the future, we use the Community Land Model version 4.5 with prognostic crops to simulate responses of wood biomass and crop yields to CO 2, O 3, N deposition, and climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 forcings. Generally, rising CO 2 increases wood biomass and crop yields, while projected climate change causes decreases. Small projected changes in O 3 and N deposition do not strongly affect yields, though additional research is needed on future O 3 and N deposition trends and impacts. By the end of the 21st century, global wood biomass increases by ~16% due to the dominating impact of CO 2. The positive effect of CO 2 on future crop yields is muted by the negative impacts of climate, with a ~5% net global increase. Future projections suggest that rice andmore » wheat yields typically increase under the combination of future forcings, whereas soy and corn yields are regionally variable. While short-term resource management strategies can benefit from planting heat-tolerant species and cultivars, technological advances and intensification, among other management strategies not included here, must be employed to meet the future demand for these resources.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. SLevis Consulting LLC, Oceanside, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDA; National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1611963
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1478536
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0012972; FC03-97ER62402; 2015-67003-23489; 2015-67003-23485
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 123; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology

Citation Formats

Lombardozzi, Danica L., Bonan, Gordan B., Levis, Samuel, and Lawrence, David M. Changes in Wood Biomass and Crop Yields in Response to Projected CO2, O3, Nitrogen Deposition, and Climate. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018jg004680.
Lombardozzi, Danica L., Bonan, Gordan B., Levis, Samuel, & Lawrence, David M. Changes in Wood Biomass and Crop Yields in Response to Projected CO2, O3, Nitrogen Deposition, and Climate. United States. doi:10.1029/2018jg004680.
Lombardozzi, Danica L., Bonan, Gordan B., Levis, Samuel, and Lawrence, David M. Thu . "Changes in Wood Biomass and Crop Yields in Response to Projected CO2, O3, Nitrogen Deposition, and Climate". United States. doi:10.1029/2018jg004680. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1611963.
@article{osti_1611963,
title = {Changes in Wood Biomass and Crop Yields in Response to Projected CO2, O3, Nitrogen Deposition, and Climate},
author = {Lombardozzi, Danica L. and Bonan, Gordan B. and Levis, Samuel and Lawrence, David M.},
abstractNote = {As the world's population increases, so will the demand for food and timber resources. Though carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization and, to a lesser extent, nitrogen (N) deposition are expected to increase future resource production, changes in ozone (O3) and climate have the potential to decrease production due to increased phytotoxic damage, drought, and heat stress. To determine how crop and timber production may change in the future, we use the Community Land Model version 4.5 with prognostic crops to simulate responses of wood biomass and crop yields to CO2, O3, N deposition, and climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 forcings. Generally, rising CO2 increases wood biomass and crop yields, while projected climate change causes decreases. Small projected changes in O3 and N deposition do not strongly affect yields, though additional research is needed on future O3 and N deposition trends and impacts. By the end of the 21st century, global wood biomass increases by ~16% due to the dominating impact of CO2. The positive effect of CO2 on future crop yields is muted by the negative impacts of climate, with a ~5% net global increase. Future projections suggest that rice and wheat yields typically increase under the combination of future forcings, whereas soy and corn yields are regionally variable. While short-term resource management strategies can benefit from planting heat-tolerant species and cultivars, technological advances and intensification, among other management strategies not included here, must be employed to meet the future demand for these resources.},
doi = {10.1029/2018jg004680},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
issn = {2169-8953},
number = 10,
volume = 123,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {9}
}

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

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