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Title: The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment

Abstract

China, the world’s largest electricity consumer, has strong motivations to deploy nuclear power due to increasing electricity demand and environmental concerns. However, there are social, institutional, and technical barriers to future nuclear expansion. This paper provides an updated assessment of nuclear energy potential in China with analyses at both national and provincial levels and compares results with studies previously conducted. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper considers the interactions among different socioeconomic development pathways, technology options, climate policies, and social/political concerns on inland siting. Among all factors explored, climate policies have the most significant impact on accelerating the deployment of nuclear technologies. Inland siting of nuclear power plants increases total capacity, but the impact is limited without climate policy. The amount of annual nuclear generation across scenarios and studies is unlikely to rise above 11% by 2030 and 30% by 2050 of total Chinese electricity generation. A dramatic increase in total Chinese nuclear energy generating capacity – around 3900 TWh of nuclear generation by 2050 – is only possible in scenarios where China sees electricity demand increase substantially, sticks to and tightens its current Paris Accord commitments, achieves low costs of nuclear technologies, and allows inland siting of nuclearmore » power plants.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [1]
  1. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
  2. University of Maryland at College Park
  3. Tsinghua University
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1604991
Report Number(s):
PNNL-ACT-SA-10412
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Energy Policy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 139
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
China, integrated assesment, Nuclear Power Plants

Citation Formats

Yu, Sha, Yarlagadda, Brinda N., Siegel, Jonas E., Zhou, Sheng, and Kim, Son H. The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111344.
Yu, Sha, Yarlagadda, Brinda N., Siegel, Jonas E., Zhou, Sheng, & Kim, Son H. The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment. United States. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111344.
Yu, Sha, Yarlagadda, Brinda N., Siegel, Jonas E., Zhou, Sheng, and Kim, Son H. Wed . "The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment". United States. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111344.
@article{osti_1604991,
title = {The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment},
author = {Yu, Sha and Yarlagadda, Brinda N. and Siegel, Jonas E. and Zhou, Sheng and Kim, Son H.},
abstractNote = {China, the world’s largest electricity consumer, has strong motivations to deploy nuclear power due to increasing electricity demand and environmental concerns. However, there are social, institutional, and technical barriers to future nuclear expansion. This paper provides an updated assessment of nuclear energy potential in China with analyses at both national and provincial levels and compares results with studies previously conducted. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper considers the interactions among different socioeconomic development pathways, technology options, climate policies, and social/political concerns on inland siting. Among all factors explored, climate policies have the most significant impact on accelerating the deployment of nuclear technologies. Inland siting of nuclear power plants increases total capacity, but the impact is limited without climate policy. The amount of annual nuclear generation across scenarios and studies is unlikely to rise above 11% by 2030 and 30% by 2050 of total Chinese electricity generation. A dramatic increase in total Chinese nuclear energy generating capacity – around 3900 TWh of nuclear generation by 2050 – is only possible in scenarios where China sees electricity demand increase substantially, sticks to and tightens its current Paris Accord commitments, achieves low costs of nuclear technologies, and allows inland siting of nuclear power plants.},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111344},
journal = {Energy Policy},
number = ,
volume = 139,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {4}
}