Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

Romps, David M.; Seeley, Jacob T.; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

doi:10.1126/science.1259100

Title: Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

Journal Article · Fri Nov 14 00:00:00 EST 2014 · Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259100· OSTI ID:1577330

Romps, David M. ^[1]; Seeley, Jacob T. ^[1]; Vollaro, David ^[2]; Molinari, John ^[2]

Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
State Univ. of New York at Albany, Albany, NY (United States)

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. In conclusion, when this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1577330

Journal Information:: Science, Vol. 346, Issue 6211; ISSN 0036-8075

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 340 works

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The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model Chaste, Emeline; Girardin, Martin P.; Kaplan, Jed O. Biogeosciences Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-350	journal	September 2017
Tropical climate-vegetation-fire relationships: multivariate evaluation of the land surface model JSBACH Lasslop, Gitta; Moeller, Thomas; D’Onofrio, Donatella Biogeosciences Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-48	posted_content	January 2018
Boreal fire records in Northern Hemisphere ice cores: a review McConnell, Joseph; Fischer, Hubertus; Schüpbach, Simon Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.89860	text	January 2016
Storm type effects on super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of intense rainstorm properties with air temperature Peter, Molnar,; Simone, Fatichi,; Ladislav, Gaál, ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000100493	text	January 2015

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