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Title: Infrastructure-Relevant Storms of the Last Century

Abstract

Historical extreme storm events are widely used to make Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates, which form the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure safety. Past studies suggest that extreme precipitation processes can be sensitive to land surface feedback and the planetary warming trend, which makes the future safety of large infrastructures questionable given the projected changes in land cover and temperature in the coming decades. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was employed to reconstruct 10 extreme storms over CONUS that occurred during the past 100 years, which are used by the engineering profession for PMP estimation for large infrastructures such as dams. Results show that the correlation in daily rainfall for such reconstruction can range between 0.4 and 0.7, while the correlation for maximum 3-day accumulation (a standard period used in infrastructure design) is always above 0.5 for post-1948 storms. This suggests that current numerical modeling and reanalysis data allow us to reconstruct big storms after 1948 with acceptable accuracy. For storms prior to 1948, however, reconstruction of storms shows inconsistency with observations. Our study indicates that numerical modeling and data may not have advanced to a sufficient level to understand how such old storms (pre-1948) may behavemore » in future warming and land cover conditions. However, the infrastructure community can certainly rely on the use of model reconstructed extreme storms of the 1948-present period to reassess safety of our large water infrastructures under assumed changes in temperature and land cover.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]
  1. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
  2. University of Washington
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1573212
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-147718
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Book
Country of Publication:
Switzerland
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Chen, Xiaodong, and Hossain, Faisal. Infrastructure-Relevant Storms of the Last Century. Switzerland: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-26432-1_5.
Chen, Xiaodong, & Hossain, Faisal. Infrastructure-Relevant Storms of the Last Century. Switzerland. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-26432-1_5.
Chen, Xiaodong, and Hossain, Faisal. Thu . "Infrastructure-Relevant Storms of the Last Century". Switzerland. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-26432-1_5.
@article{osti_1573212,
title = {Infrastructure-Relevant Storms of the Last Century},
author = {Chen, Xiaodong and Hossain, Faisal},
abstractNote = {Historical extreme storm events are widely used to make Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates, which form the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure safety. Past studies suggest that extreme precipitation processes can be sensitive to land surface feedback and the planetary warming trend, which makes the future safety of large infrastructures questionable given the projected changes in land cover and temperature in the coming decades. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was employed to reconstruct 10 extreme storms over CONUS that occurred during the past 100 years, which are used by the engineering profession for PMP estimation for large infrastructures such as dams. Results show that the correlation in daily rainfall for such reconstruction can range between 0.4 and 0.7, while the correlation for maximum 3-day accumulation (a standard period used in infrastructure design) is always above 0.5 for post-1948 storms. This suggests that current numerical modeling and reanalysis data allow us to reconstruct big storms after 1948 with acceptable accuracy. For storms prior to 1948, however, reconstruction of storms shows inconsistency with observations. Our study indicates that numerical modeling and data may not have advanced to a sufficient level to understand how such old storms (pre-1948) may behave in future warming and land cover conditions. However, the infrastructure community can certainly rely on the use of model reconstructed extreme storms of the 1948-present period to reassess safety of our large water infrastructures under assumed changes in temperature and land cover.},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-26432-1_5},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {Switzerland},
year = {2020},
month = {1}
}

Book:
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