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Title: Improving Consistency Among Models of Overlapping Scope in Multi-Sector Studies: The Case of Electricity Capacity Expansion Scenarios

Abstract

Multi-decadal scenarios produced by modeling studies are used to study the evolution of key infrastructure that cuts across energy, water, and land systems. Scenarios produced by different models contain inconsistencies due to disparate model structures and assumptions. Although inconsistencies can characterize structural uncertainties, they could have important consequences in various contexts such as multi-sector energy-water-land studies that couple multiple models. In such studies, it is important for models with overlapping scope (models having different sectoral, regional, temporal, and process details but producing scenarios for some common output variable(s)) to produce consistent scenarios of common output variable(s) to minimize propagation of inconsistent information. Using the example of baseline electricity capacity expansion scenarios produced by two models with overlapping scope, we explore cross-model scenario consistency (extent to which projections for a common scenario variable(s) diverge). We define a quantitative metric of consistency and examine the sensitivity of consistency of the models' electricity generation by technology outputs to changes in harmonization of assumptions surrounding the representations of key capacity expansion drivers such as fuel prices, renewable resources, demand, and retirements. Our study establishes a framework to systematically examine scenario consistency. In addition, our study utilizes complementary features of well-established models to produce consistentmore » baseline electricity capacity expansion scenarios which can then be used in multi-sector studies.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [3]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  2. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; University of Washington
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23), Multi-Sector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program
OSTI Identifier:
1572649
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-71211
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 116
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; energy-water-land; consistency; energy modeling; structural uncertainty; scenarios; capacity expansion

Citation Formats

Iyer, Gokul C., Brown, Maxwell, Cohen, Stuart M, Macknick, Jordan, Patel, Pralit, Wise, Marshall, Binsted, Matthew, and Voisin, N. Improving Consistency Among Models of Overlapping Scope in Multi-Sector Studies: The Case of Electricity Capacity Expansion Scenarios. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.109416.
Iyer, Gokul C., Brown, Maxwell, Cohen, Stuart M, Macknick, Jordan, Patel, Pralit, Wise, Marshall, Binsted, Matthew, & Voisin, N. Improving Consistency Among Models of Overlapping Scope in Multi-Sector Studies: The Case of Electricity Capacity Expansion Scenarios. United States. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.109416.
Iyer, Gokul C., Brown, Maxwell, Cohen, Stuart M, Macknick, Jordan, Patel, Pralit, Wise, Marshall, Binsted, Matthew, and Voisin, N. Wed . "Improving Consistency Among Models of Overlapping Scope in Multi-Sector Studies: The Case of Electricity Capacity Expansion Scenarios". United States. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.109416.
@article{osti_1572649,
title = {Improving Consistency Among Models of Overlapping Scope in Multi-Sector Studies: The Case of Electricity Capacity Expansion Scenarios},
author = {Iyer, Gokul C. and Brown, Maxwell and Cohen, Stuart M and Macknick, Jordan and Patel, Pralit and Wise, Marshall and Binsted, Matthew and Voisin, N.},
abstractNote = {Multi-decadal scenarios produced by modeling studies are used to study the evolution of key infrastructure that cuts across energy, water, and land systems. Scenarios produced by different models contain inconsistencies due to disparate model structures and assumptions. Although inconsistencies can characterize structural uncertainties, they could have important consequences in various contexts such as multi-sector energy-water-land studies that couple multiple models. In such studies, it is important for models with overlapping scope (models having different sectoral, regional, temporal, and process details but producing scenarios for some common output variable(s)) to produce consistent scenarios of common output variable(s) to minimize propagation of inconsistent information. Using the example of baseline electricity capacity expansion scenarios produced by two models with overlapping scope, we explore cross-model scenario consistency (extent to which projections for a common scenario variable(s) diverge). We define a quantitative metric of consistency and examine the sensitivity of consistency of the models' electricity generation by technology outputs to changes in harmonization of assumptions surrounding the representations of key capacity expansion drivers such as fuel prices, renewable resources, demand, and retirements. Our study establishes a framework to systematically examine scenario consistency. In addition, our study utilizes complementary features of well-established models to produce consistent baseline electricity capacity expansion scenarios which can then be used in multi-sector studies.},
doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2019.109416},
journal = {Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews},
number = ,
volume = 116,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {10}
}