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Title: The effects of changing climate on estuarine water levels: a United States Pacific Northwest case study

Abstract

Climate change impacts on extreme water levels (WLs) at two United States Pacific Northwest estuaries are investigated using a multicomponent process-based modeling framework. The integrated impact of climate change on estuarine forcing is considered using a series of sub-models that track changes to oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic controls on hydrodynamics. This modeling framework is run at decadal scales for historic (1979–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods with changes to extreme WLs quantified across the two study sites. It is found that there is spatial variability in extreme WLs at both study sites with all recurrence interval events increasing with further distance into the estuary. This spatial variability is found to increase for the 100-year event moving into the future. It is found that the full effect of sea level rise is mitigated by a decrease in forcing. Short-recurrence-interval events are less buffered and therefore more impacted by sea level rise than higher-returninterval events. Finally, results show that annual extremes at the study sites are defined by compound events with a variety of forcing contributing to high WLs.

Authors:
 [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3]
  1. Oregon State University
  2. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
  3. Oregon Water Resources Department
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1571500
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-147651
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 19; Journal Issue: 8
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Parker, Kai, Hill, David, Garcia Medina, Gabriel, and Beamer, Jordan. The effects of changing climate on estuarine water levels: a United States Pacific Northwest case study. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.5194/nhess-19-1601-2019.
Parker, Kai, Hill, David, Garcia Medina, Gabriel, & Beamer, Jordan. The effects of changing climate on estuarine water levels: a United States Pacific Northwest case study. United States. doi:10.5194/nhess-19-1601-2019.
Parker, Kai, Hill, David, Garcia Medina, Gabriel, and Beamer, Jordan. Mon . "The effects of changing climate on estuarine water levels: a United States Pacific Northwest case study". United States. doi:10.5194/nhess-19-1601-2019.
@article{osti_1571500,
title = {The effects of changing climate on estuarine water levels: a United States Pacific Northwest case study},
author = {Parker, Kai and Hill, David and Garcia Medina, Gabriel and Beamer, Jordan},
abstractNote = {Climate change impacts on extreme water levels (WLs) at two United States Pacific Northwest estuaries are investigated using a multicomponent process-based modeling framework. The integrated impact of climate change on estuarine forcing is considered using a series of sub-models that track changes to oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologic controls on hydrodynamics. This modeling framework is run at decadal scales for historic (1979–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods with changes to extreme WLs quantified across the two study sites. It is found that there is spatial variability in extreme WLs at both study sites with all recurrence interval events increasing with further distance into the estuary. This spatial variability is found to increase for the 100-year event moving into the future. It is found that the full effect of sea level rise is mitigated by a decrease in forcing. Short-recurrence-interval events are less buffered and therefore more impacted by sea level rise than higher-returninterval events. Finally, results show that annual extremes at the study sites are defined by compound events with a variety of forcing contributing to high WLs.},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-19-1601-2019},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
number = 8,
volume = 19,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {8}
}

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