A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change

Journal Article · Mon Aug 19 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Nature Ecology and Evolution

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0958-3· OSTI ID:1569379

Song, Jian  ^[1]; Wan, Shiqiang  ^[1]; Piao, Shilong  ^[2]; Knapp, Alan K. ^[3]; Classen, Aimée T.  ^[4]; Vicca, Sara  ^[5]; Ciais, Philippe  ^[6]; Hovenden, Mark J.  ^[7]; Leuzinger, Sebastian ^[8]; Beier, Claus ^[9]; Kardol, Paul  ^[10]; Xia, Jianyang  ^[11]; Liu, Qiang ^[12]; Ru, Jingyi  ^[13]; Zhou, Zhenxing ^[13]; Luo, Yiqi ^[14]; Guo, Dali ^[15]; Adam Langley, J. ^[16]; Zscheischler, Jakob  ^[17]; Dukes, Jeffrey S.  ^[18] ; Tang, Jianwu ^[19]; Chen, Jiquan ^[20]; Hofmockel, Kirsten S.  ^[21]; Kueppers, Lara M. ^[22]; Rustad, Lindsey ^[23]; Liu, Lingli  ^[24]; Smith, Melinda D.  ^[3]; Templer, Pamela H.  ^[25]; Quinn Thomas, R. ^[26]; Norby, Richard J.  ^[27]; Phillips, Richard P.  ^[28]; Niu, Shuli ^[29]; Fatichi, Simone  ^[30]; Wang, Yingping  ^[31]; Shao, Pengshuai ^[32]; Han, Hongyan ^[33]; Wang, Dandan ^[13]; Lei, Lingjie ^[13]; Wang, Jiali ^[13]; Li, Xiaona ^[13]; Zhang, Qian ^[13]; Li, Xiaoming ^[13]; Su, Fanglong ^[13]; Liu, Bin ^[13]; Yang, Fan ^[13]; Ma, Gaigai ^[13]; Li, Guoyong ^[13]; Liu, Yanchun ^[13]; Liu, Yinzhan ^[13]; Yang, Zhongling ^[13]; Zhang, Kesheng ^[13]; Miao, Yuan ^[13]; Hu, Mengjun ^[13]; Yan, Chuang ^[13]; Zhang, Ang ^[13]; Zhong, Mingxing ^[13]; Hui, Yan ^[13]; Li, Ying ^[13]; Zheng, Mengmei ^[13]

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1. Hebei Univ., Boading (China). College of Life Sciences; Henan Univ., Kaifeng (China). School of Life Sciences, International Joint Research Lab. for Global Change Ecology
2. Peking Univ, Beijing (China). College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science and Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Key Lab. of Alpine Ecology
3. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology
4. Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources and Gund Inst. for Environment
5. Univ. of Antwerp, Wilrijk (Belgium). Dept. of Biology, Centre of Excellence Plant and Vegetation Ecology (PLECO)
6. Peking Univ, Beijing (China). College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science; Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif sur Yvette (France)
7. Univ. of Tasmania, Hobart (Australia). School of Natural Sciences, Biological Sciences
8. Auckland Univ. of Technology, Auckland (New Zealand). School of Science, Inst. for Applied Ecology New Zealand
9. Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark). Dept. of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
10. Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå (Sweden). Dept. of Forest Ecology and Management
11. East China Normal Univ., Shanghai (China). School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, Shanghai Key Lab. for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, and Research Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting
12. Peking Univ, Beijing (China). College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science
13. Henan Univ., Kaifeng (China). School of Life Sciences, International Joint Research Lab. for Global Change Ecology
14. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences, Center for Ecosystem Study and Society
15. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Key Lab. of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Center for Forest Ecosystem Studies
16. Villanova Univ., Villanova, PA (United States). Dept. of Biology
17. ETH, Zürich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science; Univ. of Bern, Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics
18. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Forestry and Natural Resources and Dept. of Biological Sciences
19. The Ecosystem Center, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Marine Biological Lab.
20. Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Dept. of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations
21. Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States). Dept. of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology; Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Environmental Molecular Sciences Lab.
22. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resources Group; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
23. United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Durham, NH (United States). Northern Research Station
24. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany, State Key Lab. of Vegetation and Environmental Change
25. Boston Univ., Boston, MA (United States). Dept. of Biology
26. Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA (United States). Dept. of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation
27. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Inst.
28. Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology
29. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Key Lab. of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling
30. ETH, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. of Environmental Engineering
31. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Victoria (Australia)
32. Binzhou Univ, Binzhou (China). Shandong Key Lab. of Eco-Environmental Science for the Yellow River Delta
33. Binzhou Univ, Binzhou (China). Shandong Key Lab. of Eco-Environmental Science for the Yellow River Delta

Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. In this study, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO₂ and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO₂ treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO₂. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers in underrepresented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1569379
• Journal Information: Nature Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 3, Issue 9; ISSN 2397-334X
• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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