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Title: Analysis of Differential Financial Impacts of LWR Load-Following Operations

Abstract

This document reports the application of HERON (Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network), a newly-developed RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment) plugin for grid and capacity optimization, to a case study conducted in collaboration with Arizona Public Service (APS). The study is a work in progress; this report presents a description of current models and corresponding results for a particular consideration. APS is anticipating several operational challenges. The first is rapid growth of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources such as wind and solar power providing energy to the grid in the APS service region. This creates challenges for baseload operation of the Palo Verde Generating Station (PVGS), a nuclear power plant co-owned and operated by APS. The second challenge for APS is a change in the cooling water acquisition contract with the Sub Regional Operating Group (SROG). The existing contract is expiring soon, and a renewal is only available for a significantly higher price of water. These two challenges represent a difficulty in maintaining profitability for PVGS as local area demand is highly fluctuant and water prices may increase. Furthermore, excess production at PVGS is currently traded on the Palo Verde energy Hub (PVH), which occasionally offers very low or negative locationalmore » marginal prices (LMP) for electricity. This analysis considers the potential benefits of occasional curtailment of PVGS as a method to mitigate unprofitable production hours. Similar to load following, optional daily curtailment would allow APS to elect curtailment of PVGS as low as 70% of its nominal operating level between the hours of 08:00 and 16:00 provided local area demand is met and it is profitable to do so. This document reports a stochastic differential analysis of the Net Present Value (NPV) of PVGS as operated by NPS as a result of optional curtailment operation. To model this differential case, HERON has been designed from previous efforts in this study as a generic tool to accelerate the design and execution of RAVEN workflows for technoeconomic analysis of grid energy systems. HERON leverages both RAVEN and the CashFlow plugin for RAVEN to stochastically explore or optimize a response surface with energy grid system production capacities as inputs and mean NPV as a goal function. HERON performs these evaluations by stochastically sampling market, weather, and demand events using RAVEN’s ARMA reduced-order model capability to generate boundary conditions for dispatch optimization. The algorithm performs the dispatch optimization for each of the synthetic scenarios. For this case, HERON designs workflows to simulate behavior of the PVH, wind, solar, and APS local area demand, and use these synthetic scenarios to stochastically evaluate the differential benefit of optional curtailment for each scenario. While this study finds optional curtailment to be a potential source of revenue, the magnitude of the differential NPV is sufficiently small that it is unlikely a priority for increasing the profitability of PVGS. Further, the differential NPV shrinks throughout the simulated years, suggesting the long-term benefit of such operation given current assumptions is negligible.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Idaho National Laboratory
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE)
OSTI Identifier:
1569226
Report Number(s):
INL/EXT-19-55614-Rev000
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC07-05ID14517
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; 14 - SOLAR ENERGY; 17 - WIND ENERGY; 21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS; 29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; HERON; RAVEN; IES; APS; Palo Verde; dispatch optimization; economics; grid energy systems; regulated energy market

Citation Formats

Talbot, Paul W, Burli, Pralhad Hanumant, Richardson, James D, Epiney, Aaron S, Rabiti, Cristian, and Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M. Analysis of Differential Financial Impacts of LWR Load-Following Operations. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.2172/1569226.
Talbot, Paul W, Burli, Pralhad Hanumant, Richardson, James D, Epiney, Aaron S, Rabiti, Cristian, & Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M. Analysis of Differential Financial Impacts of LWR Load-Following Operations. United States. doi:10.2172/1569226.
Talbot, Paul W, Burli, Pralhad Hanumant, Richardson, James D, Epiney, Aaron S, Rabiti, Cristian, and Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M. Mon . "Analysis of Differential Financial Impacts of LWR Load-Following Operations". United States. doi:10.2172/1569226. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1569226.
@article{osti_1569226,
title = {Analysis of Differential Financial Impacts of LWR Load-Following Operations},
author = {Talbot, Paul W and Burli, Pralhad Hanumant and Richardson, James D and Epiney, Aaron S and Rabiti, Cristian and Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M},
abstractNote = {This document reports the application of HERON (Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network), a newly-developed RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment) plugin for grid and capacity optimization, to a case study conducted in collaboration with Arizona Public Service (APS). The study is a work in progress; this report presents a description of current models and corresponding results for a particular consideration. APS is anticipating several operational challenges. The first is rapid growth of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources such as wind and solar power providing energy to the grid in the APS service region. This creates challenges for baseload operation of the Palo Verde Generating Station (PVGS), a nuclear power plant co-owned and operated by APS. The second challenge for APS is a change in the cooling water acquisition contract with the Sub Regional Operating Group (SROG). The existing contract is expiring soon, and a renewal is only available for a significantly higher price of water. These two challenges represent a difficulty in maintaining profitability for PVGS as local area demand is highly fluctuant and water prices may increase. Furthermore, excess production at PVGS is currently traded on the Palo Verde energy Hub (PVH), which occasionally offers very low or negative locational marginal prices (LMP) for electricity. This analysis considers the potential benefits of occasional curtailment of PVGS as a method to mitigate unprofitable production hours. Similar to load following, optional daily curtailment would allow APS to elect curtailment of PVGS as low as 70% of its nominal operating level between the hours of 08:00 and 16:00 provided local area demand is met and it is profitable to do so. This document reports a stochastic differential analysis of the Net Present Value (NPV) of PVGS as operated by NPS as a result of optional curtailment operation. To model this differential case, HERON has been designed from previous efforts in this study as a generic tool to accelerate the design and execution of RAVEN workflows for technoeconomic analysis of grid energy systems. HERON leverages both RAVEN and the CashFlow plugin for RAVEN to stochastically explore or optimize a response surface with energy grid system production capacities as inputs and mean NPV as a goal function. HERON performs these evaluations by stochastically sampling market, weather, and demand events using RAVEN’s ARMA reduced-order model capability to generate boundary conditions for dispatch optimization. The algorithm performs the dispatch optimization for each of the synthetic scenarios. For this case, HERON designs workflows to simulate behavior of the PVH, wind, solar, and APS local area demand, and use these synthetic scenarios to stochastically evaluate the differential benefit of optional curtailment for each scenario. While this study finds optional curtailment to be a potential source of revenue, the magnitude of the differential NPV is sufficiently small that it is unlikely a priority for increasing the profitability of PVGS. Further, the differential NPV shrinks throughout the simulated years, suggesting the long-term benefit of such operation given current assumptions is negligible.},
doi = {10.2172/1569226},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {9}
}

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