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Title: Teleconnection between mean sea level pressure in the North Atlantic for September, the AMO phase and mean temperature in Central Europe for December (1896–2015)

Abstract

According to the present study, an atmospheric teleconnection is likely to exist between mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in the North Atlantic at early autumn (September) and temperature in Central Europe at early winter (December) based on the last 120 years. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) might play an important role in this teleconnection, determining its direction. During a positive AMO phase, a North Atlantic MSLP above average in September is frequently followed by a colder-than-average December in Central Europe (in 80% of cases) whereas a warmer-than-average December is often observed in Central Europe after an under-average MSLP in the North Atlantic in September. According to the present investigation, this is caused by a strong tendency for blocking patterns over Northern Europe (mostly over the British Isles and Scandinavia) in the last month of the year, in the first case, and a weak tendency for that, in the second case. During a negative AMO phase, this connection is less certain. In the strong negative AMO phase between 1903 and 1925, the connection became reversed compared with that observed during the positive AMO phase. However, it was significantly strong. Within the much weaker negative AMO phase between 1963 and 1994, the connectionmore » was weaker, but rather similar to that observed during positive AMO phases. Since the revealed atmospheric teleconnection is characterized by a three-month delay, it possesses a prognostic value and can be used to predict the probability of temperature anomaly.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Department of ForecastingHungarian Meteorological Service Budapest Hungary
  2. Research and DevelopmentGerman Weather Service Offenbach Germany
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1565714
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Meteorological Applications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 26; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1350-4827
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Babolcsai, György, and Hirsch, Tamás. Teleconnection between mean sea level pressure in the North Atlantic for September, the AMO phase and mean temperature in Central Europe for December (1896–2015). United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/met.1760.
Babolcsai, György, & Hirsch, Tamás. Teleconnection between mean sea level pressure in the North Atlantic for September, the AMO phase and mean temperature in Central Europe for December (1896–2015). United States. doi:10.1002/met.1760.
Babolcsai, György, and Hirsch, Tamás. Wed . "Teleconnection between mean sea level pressure in the North Atlantic for September, the AMO phase and mean temperature in Central Europe for December (1896–2015)". United States. doi:10.1002/met.1760.
@article{osti_1565714,
title = {Teleconnection between mean sea level pressure in the North Atlantic for September, the AMO phase and mean temperature in Central Europe for December (1896–2015)},
author = {Babolcsai, György and Hirsch, Tamás},
abstractNote = {According to the present study, an atmospheric teleconnection is likely to exist between mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in the North Atlantic at early autumn (September) and temperature in Central Europe at early winter (December) based on the last 120 years. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) might play an important role in this teleconnection, determining its direction. During a positive AMO phase, a North Atlantic MSLP above average in September is frequently followed by a colder-than-average December in Central Europe (in 80% of cases) whereas a warmer-than-average December is often observed in Central Europe after an under-average MSLP in the North Atlantic in September. According to the present investigation, this is caused by a strong tendency for blocking patterns over Northern Europe (mostly over the British Isles and Scandinavia) in the last month of the year, in the first case, and a weak tendency for that, in the second case. During a negative AMO phase, this connection is less certain. In the strong negative AMO phase between 1903 and 1925, the connection became reversed compared with that observed during the positive AMO phase. However, it was significantly strong. Within the much weaker negative AMO phase between 1963 and 1994, the connection was weaker, but rather similar to that observed during positive AMO phases. Since the revealed atmospheric teleconnection is characterized by a three-month delay, it possesses a prognostic value and can be used to predict the probability of temperature anomaly.},
doi = {10.1002/met.1760},
journal = {Meteorological Applications},
issn = {1350-4827},
number = 2,
volume = 26,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {12}
}

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