skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries

Abstract

The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western disturbances associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the twentieth century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at themore » years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565548
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 49; Journal Issue: 5-6; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Munz, Philipp M., Lückge, Andreas, Siccha, Michael, Böll, Anna, Forke, Sven, Kucera, Michal, and Schulz, Hartmut. The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3403-1.
Munz, Philipp M., Lückge, Andreas, Siccha, Michael, Böll, Anna, Forke, Sven, Kucera, Michal, & Schulz, Hartmut. The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries. United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3403-1.
Munz, Philipp M., Lückge, Andreas, Siccha, Michael, Böll, Anna, Forke, Sven, Kucera, Michal, and Schulz, Hartmut. Fri . "The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries". United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3403-1.
@article{osti_1565548,
title = {The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries},
author = {Munz, Philipp M. and Lückge, Andreas and Siccha, Michael and Böll, Anna and Forke, Sven and Kucera, Michal and Schulz, Hartmut},
abstractNote = {The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western disturbances associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the twentieth century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3403-1},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
issn = {0930-7575},
number = 5-6,
volume = 49,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {10}
}

Works referenced in this record:

Evidence for solar forcing on the Indian monsoon during the last millennium
journal, May 2002


Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region: VOLCANOES AND THE ASIAN MONSOON
journal, November 2010

  • Anchukaitis, K. J.; Buckley, B. M.; Cook, E. R.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 22
  • DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044843

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum
journal, January 2014


On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall
journal, January 2007


Individual and Combined Influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian Summer Monsoon
journal, August 2004


Primary productivity and its regulation in the Arabian Sea during 1995
journal, January 2001

  • Barber, Richard T.; Marra, John; Bidigare, Robert C.
  • Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, Vol. 48, Issue 6-7
  • DOI: 10.1016/S0967-0645(00)00134-X

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5
journal, April 2013


Prediction of southern Indian winter monsoon rainfall from September local upper-air temperatures
journal, January 1999

  • Bhanu Kumar, O. S. R. U.; Naidu, C. V.; Rao, S. R. L.
  • Meteorological Applications, Vol. 11, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1017/S1350482704001306

Eight Centuries of North Atlantic Ocean Atmosphere Variability
journal, November 1999


Contrasting sea surface temperature of summer and winter monsoon variability in the northern Arabian Sea over the last 25 ka
journal, May 2015


Indian Ocean SST and Indian Summer Rainfall: Predictive Relationships and Their Decadal Variability
journal, July 2000


A central tropical Pacific coral demonstrates Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic decadal climate connections
journal, June 2001

  • Cobb, Kim M.; Charles, Christopher D.; Hunter, David E.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 28, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1029/2001GL012919

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
journal, January 2011

  • Compo, G. P.; Whitaker, J. S.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 654
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.776

Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends: Coverage Bias in the HadCRUT4 Temperature Series
journal, February 2014

  • Cowtan, Kevin; Way, Robert G.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 140, Issue 683
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.2297

Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism
journal, January 2013


The response of the East Asian summer monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions
journal, September 2014


Intraseasonal oscillation associated with the Indian winter monsoon: INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION
journal, February 2013

  • Dimri, A. P.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50144

Western Disturbances: A review: WESTERN DISTURBANCE: A REVIEW
journal, May 2015

  • Dimri, A. P.; Niyogi, D.; Barros, A. P.
  • Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 53, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014RG000460

High-resolution temperature and evaporation changes during the Late Holocene in the northeastern Arabian Sea
journal, August 2001

  • Doose-Rolinski, Heidi; Rogalla, Ulf; Scheeder, Georg
  • Paleoceanography, Vol. 16, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1029/2000PA000511

Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series
journal, January 2002


The Siberian High and climate change over middle to high latitude Asia
journal, May 2002

  • Gong, D. -Y.; Ho, C. -H.
  • Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 72, Issue 1-2
  • DOI: 10.1007/s007040200008

The Climatology and Interannual Variability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in CMIP5 Models
journal, February 2014


The contributions of rare objects in correspondence analysis
journal, January 2013


Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series
journal, January 2004

  • Grinsted, A.; Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.
  • Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol. 11, Issue 5/6
  • DOI: 10.5194/npg-11-561-2004

Solar influence on the Indian summer monsoon during the Holocene: INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON-SOLAR LINK
journal, September 2005

  • Gupta, Anil K.; Das, Moumita; Anderson, David M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1029/2005GL022685

Global Surface Temperature Change
journal, January 2010


Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter monsoon as revealed by nine coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs
journal, January 2006

  • Hori, Masatake E.; Ueda, Hiroaki
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024961

Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM
journal, February 2000

  • Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Bengtsson, Lennart; Arpe, Klaus
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 105, Issue D4
  • DOI: 10.1029/1999JD901031

Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on northern hemisphere temperature
journal, March 1996

  • Hurrell, James W.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 23, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1029/96GL00459

A New East Asian Winter Monsoon Index and Associated Characteristics of the Winter Monsoon
journal, February 2004


Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 1. Measurement and sampling uncertainties
journal, January 2011

  • Kennedy, J. J.; Rayner, N. A.; Smith, R. O.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D14
  • DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015218

On the Weakening Relationship Between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO
journal, June 1999


Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Monsoon Failure During El Nino
journal, October 2006


Decadal scale oscillations and trend in the Indian monsoon rainfall
journal, July 2013


Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall
journal, September 2003


Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift
journal, December 2009


The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall
journal, January 2013

  • Levine, Richard C.; Turner, Andrew G.; Marathayil, Deepthi
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1656-x

Taking China's Temperature: Daily Range, Warming Trends, and Regional Variations, 1955–2000
journal, November 2004

  • Liu, Binhui; Xu, Ming; Henderson, Mark
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 22
  • DOI: 10.1175/3230.1

Changes in western disturbances over the Western Himalayas in a warming environment
journal, May 2014


Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series
journal, July 1996

  • Mann, Michael E.; Lees, Jonathan M.
  • Climatic Change, Vol. 33, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1007/BF00142586

A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production
journal, June 1997


North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate
journal, April 2014

  • Mohtadi, Mahyar; Prange, Matthias; Oppo, Delia W.
  • Nature, Vol. 509, Issue 7498
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature13196

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set: THE HADCRUT4 DATASET
journal, April 2012

  • Morice, Colin P.; Kennedy, John J.; Rayner, Nick A.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D8
  • DOI: 10.1029/2011JD017187

A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium
journal, July 2015

  • Ortega, Pablo; Lehner, Flavio; Swingedouw, Didier
  • Nature, Vol. 523, Issue 7558
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature14518

Formation and spreading of Arabian Sea high-salinity water mass
journal, January 1999

  • Kumar, S. Prasanna; Prasad, T. G.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 104, Issue C1
  • DOI: 10.1029/1998JC900022

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions
journal, December 1992

  • Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 19, Issue 24
  • DOI: 10.1029/92GL02627

Distribution of diatoms, coccolithophores and planktic foraminifers along a trophic gradient during SW monsoon in the Arabian Sea
journal, June 2004


Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate
journal, January 2012

  • Schmidt, A.; Carslaw, K. S.; Mann, G. W.
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 12, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-12-7321-2012

Ti content in Huguangyan maar lake sediment as a proxy for monsoon-induced vegetation density in the Holocene: TI CONTENT IN HUGUANGYAN SEDIMENT
journal, November 2013

  • Shen, Ji; Wu, Xudong; Zhang, Zhaohui
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50740

Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600
journal, January 2004


Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years
journal, July 2015

  • Sigl, M.; Winstrup, M.; McConnell, J. R.
  • Nature, Vol. 523, Issue 7562
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature14565

Total solar irradiance during the Holocene
journal, January 2009

  • Steinhilber, F.; Beer, J.; Fröhlich, C.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 19
  • DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040142

Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model
journal, November 2004


Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives: TIERNEY ET AL.
journal, March 2015

  • Tierney, Jessica E.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.
  • Paleoceanography, Vol. 30, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014PA002717

Links between Indo-Pacific climate variability and drought in the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas
journal, July 2012

  • Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; D’Arrigo, Rosanne D.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 40, Issue 5-6
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1458-1

A 5000-yr Record of Climate Change in Varved Sediments from the Oxygen Minimum Zone off Pakistan, Northeastern Arabian Sea
journal, January 1999

  • von Rad, Ulrich; Schaaf, Michael; Michels, Klaus H.
  • Quaternary Research, Vol. 51, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1006/qres.1998.2016

Contrasting the Indian and East Asian monsoons: implications on geologic timescales
journal, September 2003


Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction
journal, June 1998

  • Webster, P. J.; Magaña, V. O.; Palmer, T. N.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 103, Issue C7
  • DOI: 10.1029/97JC02719

Volcanic Influence on European Summer Precipitation through Monsoons: Possible Cause for “Years without Summer”
journal, May 2014


Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing
journal, July 2015

  • Winter, Amos; Zanchettin, Davide; Miller, Thomas
  • Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8627

Evaluation of the twentieth century reanalysis dataset in describing East Asian winter monsoon variability
journal, October 2013